I backtested the strategy in Excel and graphed the performance.  I've found it easier to play around in Excel these days rather than going through the process of loading BTC data into NinjaTrader.

That is very interesting... can ou share more details on how you did this.   I would love more information

I made some static pages that I have been using to bitcoin performance at the four major exchanges based on the 'Goomboo method' and though I would post some screen shots here to see if there would be any interest in releasing them as a full package.



Some things to point out:

• All the 'real data' comes from BitcoinCharts, so a hat tip to them
• You can see right now I have it configured for 6 different time periods, but all those periods have the same exchange charts for quickly comparing
• It is very easy for me to add/change a time period.  Don't want to use 10/21, no problem, I can change it very quickly (as long as BitcoinCharts will graph it)
• Each chart can be clicked on to goto the 'full' BitcoinCharts page, as well as the specific exchange (to trade), or the BitcoinCharts market detail page
• I use a browser add-on (RefreshMonkey) that I can set/change very easily a refresh period on the page so it is always up to date
• There is a UTC clock at the top right hand corner of the page so you can see at a glance that the charts are indeed updated
• These are true static HTML pages (no app server needed) so you can use dirt cheap hosting.  I use dropbox for mine.

Here are some full-res screenshots on differing devices:

• Chrome on OSX
• Chrome on iPad
• Safari on iPhone

Like I said I am soliciting to see if there is any interest in me developing this into a full package.

Definitely.  Here's some links to articles which pretty much document the process I go through:

http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2011/08/23/backtesting-in-excel/

http://www.aaii.com/computerizedinvesting/article/spreadsheet-corner-constructing-moving-averages

I haven't listened to the audio on this video, so I'm not sure what he or she says, but this looks similar to what I'm doing:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BaAjVpH6pM


The "equity curve" that I post is created by adding another column and actually compounding the returns through time and then graphing.

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Edit - "compounding" is finance mumbo-jumbo that means when your system says to be "long", multiply your previous account balance by the percent change + 1 in the given time period.  When actually short (not flat), multiply the previous account balance times the percent change + 1 x -1 in the given time period.  If flat, make your current account balance equal to the previous account balance in a given time period.

For all of the charts I've been posting over the past few months, I assume no shorting, long only.  So when the system says to be long, I'm compounding.  When the system says to be short, I'm sitting on the sidelines.

Steady.... steady.... don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes.

With a small lose of fees and spread. That's only IF they crossed and closed crossed. If the 10 just bounced off of the 21 and never closed below it, then you would still be holding long.

Those who are interesting in testing their strategies on history data, may also try my Backtesting tool.

For example, to backtest Goomboo's strategy over historical Mtgox data since March, first you need to post the code that might look as:


After, select a date range and trading frequency using the form located above the chart.
Then click 'Run' and watch the log.
Backtest results
http://cryptotrader.org/backtests/6mqAkbNGvqDSC8Dz8

The API documentation is located under "Help" tab. At this time, only limited set of indicators is supported (EMA, VWAP), but i'm working on integrating Ta-lib library (http://www.ta-lib.org/) which includes 125+ indicators for technical analysis.

Great tool!

Yes, if you start trading in May, at best (hourly ema), you don't loose money, at worse (daily ema) you loose 1/3 of your money  (but in this case, buy and hold would make you loose money too)

Goomboo..


First I wanted to say THANKS big time for this thread..  I have made my way slowly through it taking notes along the way and have learned SO much from it..  As soon as I build up some of my own BTC I will throw a tip your way(To a charity)..


There was a post in your thread where someone used the term “OP” and you were not sure what OP meant but guessed correctly..  That is a Microcosm of how I felt about this whole Trading subject, and you have made it so much easier to understand for those of us that had no clue what EMA and a lot of these other terms even meant..  LOL


One of the MANY takeaways I got from this thread is you have to have the discipline to stay with it..       I think this is where a good EMA bot could come in handy for some of us..


Anyway not to get off subject but I have had an interest in the Forex market for some time but always hatted the SPAM forex Emails I use to get tons of and always heard the Forex market is a REALLY hard market to make any money off of and that most of the ones making money were the ones spamming us and selling their expensive ForEx products..  (This is one thing I could never understand when it comes to any kind of investing..  Why would someone that has such a great method or system want to sell it instead of just using their method?  Always made me wonder was their method that cost $4,000 really that great..  I know some are legit but this always struck me as odd and probably why I never bought into any of these seminars or products they were selling)


Could you maybe suggest where someone like me could get started in learning about Forex?   Any good complete beginner books you recommend?   That baby Pips sight looks interesting.  Should I just start there?

I am assuming you can apply this same EMA strategy outlined in this thread to the Forex market?


   Thanks again..

I've just added support for MACD indicator.
The code that uses it might look like:

Example of simple strategy based on MACD: http://cryptotrader.org/backtests/4gCGSZdFS2ou4yZui

Technically, all of indicators listed here http://tadoc.org/ are supported, but it will take time to document it fully.



Since several people requested for 2H bars i'm going to add such option soon. As regards custom intervals, it shouldn't be hard to implement this, since the backend stores all history data from Mtgox.