I sort of see what some of you are saying but at the same time I think you're missing the potential importance of a crypto currency that isn't based around maintaining a clean open ledger like bitcoin.
A currency like Monero, without a huge focus on a ledger and with its feature being anonyminity will be useful for millions.
This. Drug trade on deep web alone, will make the favoured anon coin > $1.000.000.000 market cap big. Question is which coin is becoming this. Lots of development, lots of projects, lots of different approaches. Exciting times.
I agree that there will be some demand for "strong privacy" for black-market dealings, etc., but are we convinced that this demand won't be met by layers built on top of bitcoin? Let's hypothetically assume that one could achieve the same level of privacy as some foo coin, but using bitcoin instead. Why would the blackmarket not prefer this over trading in and out of some foo coin?
Two privacy-enhancing techniques for bitcoin are coinjoin and zerocash:
COINJOIN (Greg Maxwell):
https://bt.irlbtc.com/view/279249.0 - working implementations:
- blockchain.info's "sharedcoin"
- darkwallet project
ZEROCASH (Eli Ben-Sasson, et al):
http://zerocash-project.org/media/pdf/zerocash-extended-20140518.pdf - I don't think there are any working implementations yet, and I haven't really followed this project, but brilliant people such as Peter Todd are working on it.
With these types of options becoming refined, I see no appeal for a technology like Darkcoin. I
do recognize that a valid argument can be made for a truly-strong privacy protocol such as Cryptonote (ring signatures), however.
Perhaps people would trade out of bitcoin and into a cryptonote-based coin if the truly felt the additional privacy was worth it. But then again, if sidechains happen, could ring-signatures be implemented as a sidechain?
Just a little back story about why I'm interested in Monero. Apart from a little trading last year I have never held any alternative coin and have always been of the opinion that Bitcoin has no challenge. When I say challenge I don't mean something beating bitcoin, what I mean is something coming along and offering a technical capability that bitcoin does not offer. It doesn't mean a coin rivaling Bitcoin in an economic sense.
Up until Monero I have never held another coin out of principal and now I do.
The two technologies you mention, zerocoin/cash and coinjoin, once held promise in my mind but after closer examination fell short of my expectations.
The zerocoin and zerocash technologies are plagued by uncertain novel mathematics and the initial accumulator. The first one may be solvable through decades of use without weaknesses being discovered, however the accumulator is an issue I couldn't mentally work around. I cannot trust a system where it potentially could be circumvented and there is no way to prove this isn't the case.
Coinjoin looks good but the joining mode always presented a huge problem. Gmaxwell mentioned on hackernews about a new technology called cryptonote that was both working now and far superior to coinjoin.
After looking into it I saw issues with the bytecoin implementation due to the coin release being ridiculous and looked for the best alternative. I found Monero.
The ring signature technology is better than those systems that you propose can be built on top of bitcoin.
Sometimes it feels like Bitcoin is becoming its own entrenched system of power where the Bitcoin holders desperately seek to eradicate and argue away any other technology that might take even a couple percent of its market away. Even other systems that are not clones, that bring something worthwhile to the table.
You mentioned how the ledger is Bitcoins grand feature, however Monero does not want that. I hold both Bitcoin and Monero because I see the technologies not making a convergence but rather existing together.
The only possible way I can see Bitcoin absorbing the features of Monero is through side chains.