Show me a model.

Most models show bitcoin's success-case necessitating a price several orders of magnitude higher than today's. Obviously it comes down to what probability you assign to the success-case materializing, but even the relatively minor success-cases require 1BTC > $10,000.

The price could've shot to $5000 last year and it would still be false to have called it "outrageously inflated" (assuming you can't show me a model that makes sense to that effect).

(To be fair, I don't day-trade, so I'm not going to pay much attention to arguments based on technicals, as those are mostly irrelevant for those who think long-term (which is probably most of us in this thread))

Ok then. *hides face in shame*

I did just done the calculation. If trend will hold then it is one order of magnitude every 8 months.

Edit:
Cost of production of 1 bitcoin can be $1,000 before half of 2015.( @10 cents kWh )

So it's like the hose is the exponentially growing stream of new money coming into the Bitcoin investment space, and it just goes into different buckets, one of which is actual price growth. That means as long as either price or mining (or perhaps VC money into startups?) continue upward then nothing is amiss.

yeah, my personal buckets are price, consumer adoption, merchants, exchanges, mining, +/- ATM's.  for a while now we've been seeing increases in basically everything except the price, which is the most speculative bucket of them all that varies most with sentiment and cyclical variation.  we're in a bear cycle which will eventually bottom out.  it's a good time to buy and then hold at least to 2020.

of course, all this is predicated on a belief in the fundamentals of Bitcoin and its real world relationship to finance and the economy, which is what we discuss in this thread ad nauseum.  if you think its all been one massive pump and dump from mass illusion then you sell or short.  but by my estimation, nothing has changed.  you have to be very suspicious that we've had numerous ramps since 2009 that have been recoveries from huge crashes.  ponzi's don't bounce.  something is going on here.

Inflationary spiral ? If cost of electricity is bigger than price of bitcoin and miners turn off their asics then nobody is unable to mine. It will take years until difficulty dropped. (it will take months to mine 2016 blocks by hobby miners to adjust difficulty (instead of 14 days) )

I can see hash rate dropping off at some point. It won't drop off in any huge way but it will stabilize the market given the constant increase in diff and the constant decrease in price.

Yes, you will mine, because you want to protect your investment (as hobby miner), but what about mining farm(10,000,000 Ghash ..10%) will they pay millions of dollars for electricity.

what i suspect will happen is a shake out of some of the smaller miners once they reach the point that they cant afford to mine anymore leaving a further monopoly of big time miners. whether you like it or not, this is leading to further centralization. the big guys can last longer at a loss than the small guys.