I'd evaluate #of transactions, mining fees generated, and # of BTC moved to the SC as primary indicators.
I am curious about how Blockstream get paid out though, just consultant fees for dev time?
I said a few things about that and so did Greg on reddit (how we expect to make money).
Greg Maxwell (nullc on reddit) wrote some about how blockstream plans to make profit.
https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/2k3u97/we_are_bitcoin_sidechain_paper_authors_adam_back/clhoo7dI dont think making a profit is a bad thing - to hire developers & QA and UX designers and maintain software and design protocols and figure out how to use smart-contracts and find business partnerships to make those available to users all takes money. As those are good outcomes, and require more money, you have to have a profit to fuel it, you cant rely on investors to keep putting in more rounds!
Its quite feasible to make money without being controlling, proprietary, centralising or evil. We certainly aim to try.
and
You should view blockstream as a sort of hybrid. We are developing FOSS open IP much as a not-for-profit would. But we are also aiming to make a profit by selling services, doing partnerships, advising integrators etc this is all complicated stuff and people need help to make it work. Like was said its kind of like Mozilla.
and
Bitcoin has a lot to offer, and some of those things are not possible for the legacy systems to mimic. Particularly sound money, no counter-party risk, irreversable transactions (seizing and freezing basically prevent that outside of paper cash, though even that is partly relying on fungibility laws or it could have reversibility problems). Smart-contracts that are strengthened by no counter-party risk and irreversibility are one of the most interesting advantages I think. Without irreversibility and no freezability a "smart-contract" isnt smart, its just an electronic contract and we already have those. Ultimately if you combine it all you could rearchitect the financial system to largely remove systemic risk, add competition legacy systems cant react to (they intrinsically need their governance costs). This is why people gave us $21mil. Bitcoin all-in is a big deal. Sound-money is cool, but its only part of the picture.
If [blockstream profit plan] is something more arcane, it may be a cartel worthy of investing in, just in case they are able to run away with all the marbles.
Before we closed the seed funding round there were people who wrote asking how to buy in (I think some of them were confused and thought it was a "hot" new alt-coin ICO they could get it on the "ground-level" of). But also there were people who understood what a sidechain is. We do have one bitcoiner (non VC, tho qualified investor) who is an investor, and a number of the investors own BTC also.
What I said to people on twitter was "you dont need to buy into side-chains, you're already in, its called bitcoin"; well really we're invested in bitcoin & the value of stock representing a stake in our ability to profit as described above, but you get the point.
So for now I would buy more bitcoin

Also in the (mining) incentive section of the white paper there was a concept of a time-shifted fee.
Adam