I'd be interested in a specific hypothesis we could test. There seems to be a sustained trend over a period of years. I agree it is possible that wallets in use could be a factor. For example, Coinbase has gotten very large during this time period (though I'm not sure how much transaction activity is tied to them as opposed to number of registered users).

On the other hand I'm not sure that shifting wallet adoption overall has been such a continuous process and I think the simpler explanation is that transactions actually are getting smaller (or remaining constant in BTC terms). I threw out a couple of arguably plausible reasons why that might be, but that is certainly not a complete list, and it may not even be true. The Bitpay hypothesis (more retail-type transactions which are smaller than speculator transactions) is another one.

Well, the USD has appreciated against many other currencies by 20% in the last 2 years. So that 2.5-3x can be increased by 10-15% to take account of that.

good point.

So it could be that distribution of funds across addresses increased (probably correlated to lower address reuse and increased use of HD wallets). When funds are spread accross more addresses within wallets, naturally the error in measuring transaction volume decreases, because wallets can find more suitable inputs from the larger set => change percentage in transactions decreases => error decreases.

That article is well worth a read.

The argument for denying the large cash withdrawal the Pension Fund Association wanted to make goes from


to


So the argument goes from "required by guidelines to report transactions" to "judge transactions and refuse to enact them". Quite a jump.

So essentially the bank is both judge and executor? wow. And the "international guidelines on AML" (which seem to get elevated to law here) are written by who?

It'll be interesting to follow this. If the refusal of the cash withdrawal is deemed lawful (which I assume will happen), the mechanism which Hans Peter Konrad doesn't want to admit he understands can continue.


If on the other hand the bank is forced to allow the cash withdrawal... get out the wheelbarrows?

yes it does so.......

This is a variant of a bank run.

Going to be changing the poll soon so get your votes in.

Does anyone see the connection between Mt.Gox and the western banking system?

Your balances in the bank are soon only nominally same thing as cash in hand. They never were quite the same, but as convertibility is severed, the price will also diverge.

Happened to look at Google trends page and noticed they had a part of global Bitcoin searches. Take from it what you will.

2012: Finland, Sweden, US, Australia, Norway, Canada, Russia

2013: China, Netherlands, Estonia, HK, US, Finland, Czech

2014: Iceland, Estonia, China, US, Canada, Slovenia, Singapore

2015: Slovenia, Ukraine, Singapore, HK, US, Canada, Sweden


Last 12 months, surprisingly, the largest regional interest came from Ghana. Then Slovenia, Estonia and a tad further down Latvia.


Eastern Fringe Euro area are interested in alternate store of value, Africa for utility.

Isn't it dead yet? And if not, why not?