<<  >> (p.1238)
    Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2032328 times)
    cypherdoc (OP)
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 1764
    Merit: 1009



    View Profile
    May 21, 2015, 11:45:17 PM
     #24741

    totally expected up day to test the underbelly of what has now become resistance.  you have to be worried that it didn't get back over the top today.  in fact, this sets up tomorrow as a big "watch out" day:


    Would you care to specify the last 5 occurrences of this non-confirmation? This way we could compare current market breadth (which is quite strong now) and a couple other indicators with the others. I can tell the last one, in 2012, was present almost the whole year and was followed by 2013 being the best year for stocks in quite a while.

    i don't want to get into it in detail here.  it's kinda complicated b/c everyone does it a little differently.  i'm a big believer in cycle theory as well and i use the weekly bottoms as a timing mechanism to help identify approximately where the secondary low points on the charts occur which are critical for Dow Theory.   that's what the "SL" stands for that i put up here.  these cycles are approximately 22 wks long.  once you can establish where the secondary low pts are, which tend to correlate with weekly cycle bottoms, you then look for both indices, the $DJI & $DJT, to make new secondary highs together compared to their previous secondary highs. if only one does, then you get the non-confirmation which is what we have now.  this all then gets mixed in with the 4yr cycles which typically represent major tops in the $DJI over the last 100 yrs.  this large, major long term cycle has been muddied greatly over the last 20 yrs b/c of central bank intervention which works to unpredictably prolong this mess.  however at these stretched 4 yr cycle tops a vast majority of them, like >90%, are associated with a Dow Theory non-conf.  this is why it can be a huge warning signing when it occurs.  like we have now. we are way overdue for a 4yr cycle top as this cycle has been way overstretched due to QE.  the payback should be devastating; perhaps even greater than 2008.  but then again, all this TA could be hogwash.  it's all pattern recognition and the human mind is great at fooling itself.  we'll just have to see.
Page 1237
Viewing Page: 1238