I really like ready your analysis's but I have no clue what your saying most of the time.

This is a valid point; however there is the assumption that the large actors will act rationally. Even in large liquid markets a single actor can move the market. Consider for example Warren Buffet suddenly dumping the 9.1% stake in Coca Cola held by Berkshire Hathaway or Bill Gates suddenly dumping his share in Microsoft. In addition XMR has very high liquidity in proportion to its size. A sort by volume in http://coinmarketcap.com/all/ currently places XMR in 5th place overall. It is not like doing Elliot Wave analysis on BCN for example.

Edit: The case for Technical Analysis on thinly traded crypto currencies has been made before. For example by s3052 in October 2010 for Bitcoin. https://bt.irlbtc.com/view/1493.0. Bitcoin in October 2010 was smaller in capitalization and trading volume than Monero is today.

DRK had a crazy rise in 2 weeks of time. Yes we need a similar trend with Monero

Don't know and don't care as my speculation is almost entirely long term.  When I trade it's on the variations of the down swings so if I can't sell what I bought I end up with more Monero😀😀😀

Exactly. Never hoard coins on the top of the pump.

the problem you are confronted with and when you really believe in a long term success of the project is that you may be confronted with panic buying once the ship really starts moving.

if this is the case now - I do not know

If you subscribe to buy low-sell high speculation investment paradigm, it makes sense to flip the position on-off, provided that you are sufficiently smarter than the market.

If you are a believer, skipping some of the downward moves increases your position when you buy back more with no additional cash.

If you are not a believer, going in only in the times of upward momentum and out all the rest of the time, you capture 20-50% of the upside and hold your capital at risk perhaps 5-10% of the time, a good tradeoff.


BUT...

If you subscribe to the Venture Capital investment paradigm, you just take the position and don't speculate with it. You have a predetermined exit point (for a liquid asset, an exit plan that might have multiple sales) and then you just wait whether it is reached or (typically) not, and even the latter is OK. All money invested is treated as non-recoverable.

This has the advantage that you don't cut your gains. Of course the losses run 100% as well but the losses are capped to 100% while the gains are capped only at the maximum potential of the investment, which in XMR's case is really much above the current value.

- Right now, the fully mined market cap of XMR is 7 million USD
- Of BTC, it's (approx) 7,000 million USD
- Of gold, -..- 7,000,000 million USD.

If XMR gains the same position that BTC has now (without regard to what happens to BTC), we are talking about 100,000% return.

The value of gold is a bit high, after all it is higher than that of any company, but it cannot be ruled out. In fact, if it is not reached, the crypto revolution has failed to liberate mankind. So unless you are 100.000000% sure that crypto will never make it, you also cannot rule out the potential of XMR achieving a 100,000,000% return.

"It might make sense to buy some, just in case it takes off" -Satoshi (paraphrased)
 

The time will tell.
I still have my Moneros locked in a safe. 

However I am still concerned the high emission which makes high prices impossible these days.

What is this bitching about a low price?  Monero is almost a double since its inception less than a year ago!

Since when has 100%/year been a bad return on investment!!