Anyone that has any understanding of the real world knows USD will be here far longer than we will. The largest military presence the world has ever know backs USD, It's pretty damn safe. The guy with the biggest stick makes the rules no matter how civilized we want to think we are.
don't agree, it's pretty obvious the reserve-currency status of the USD is being hollowed out by a new axis of countries who have only one choice: work together or be obedient to the US... China, Russia and Iran will work together more and more, more and more the USD will be shunned for international trade. Silk road 2.0, AIIB, SGE, ... bilateral oil-trades.
Where was the US-military in Syria btw? Right, it were the Russians who called the shots... US may have the biggest stick, it won't take on China, Russia and Iran together. In addition we might also see a pivot from Europe to Asia... If the US has no friends left, they can forget it... the unipolar world is finished.
USA will less try to do things on their own. Not saying they are doing it. But You cant expect that just everyone will gang against them. Also is hard to expect others will gang at all, but more likely oppose each other. What bothered me in your post most was Iran. Iran is not a huge force. And will less and less importance of Oil will be even less important. What I see most neglects is India. India will first become biggest country, then strongest economy and last strongest military. All this will happen in this century. Europe is still there, but losing power so as Japan. Upcoming countries are Brazil, Indonesia and Nigeria.
As said, I don't think the others have much choice, it's gang up or be bullied into obedient serfdom... Trump might try to become better friends with Russia, but who knows if that will work out... Tell me which friends are left for the USA? Even Europe is turning on them as I feel it, and rightly so, the Washington imposed Russian sanctions have only hurt Europe...
Iran is a force to be reckoned with in the Persian Gulf... There's also a difference: USA needs to use its naval power for offensive purposes. Tehran needs naval power exclusively for defensive purposes... so they (Russia, China, Tehran) build anti-ship, ant-aircraft and anti-ballistic systems... There's also technologytransfer between said countries, these defensive systems would face the USA with heavy losses... Only reason why Syria and Iran remain sovereign nations is because of the military cost that an invasion or bombing would have brought on the USA... the essence of deterrence...
You're right about India btw, but I don't know where their allegiance (will) lay, they're pretty neutral to me right now...
The chart you post is made up by a US-agency, you'll have to forgive me to not trust anything that comes from said agencies... one only needs to look at the US employmentdata produced by the BLS to know what kind of politicized bullshit said agencies produce... I might trust a chart of the current status, but the predictive capabilities of these agencies are so flawed and coloured that I'd trust my own belly before them... Look at what the IMF comes up with every year...
I also don't think that this chart can possibly incorporate 'black swan events' such as loss of reserve-currency-status...
But as always, only the future will tell who's (more) right...
best regards,
