So my 25usd June estimate was pessimistic. Probably I should have accounted for the arbitrage of the bitfinex gap.
First great that you keep posting, don't feel responsible for other people's (financial) decisions.
I have some evidence that my financial opinions have been overwhelmingly, but not uniformly, beneficial to those who considered them. My concern and apology was focused more on the issues of character which I am still working through: Excessive interest in financial gain, a self-aggrandizing posture rooted in deep-seated shame - probably due to abandonment in childhood - and a willingness to bully the opposition. I will post ever more cautiously, as a result. I don't want to be the guy I see in my posting history, who is an arrogant egotistical greedy fool, no matter how superficially clever he might be on occasion.
The quoted above I can't figure out though, how do these two facts link together? Do you mean the Bitcoin price is inflated because of Bitfinex' banking issues, and Monero being more connected to the XMR/BTC rate than the XMR/USD rate (causing the USD value of Monero to temporarily go up)?
Precisely this, but I would not say 'temporarily'. We saw the inflation of btcusd when mt.gox was allowing btc but not fiat withdrawals, although that case ended very differently because of the Potemkin trading and ultimately the insolvency of mt.gox - neither of which appear to apply to bfx. Here only the first of those events was played out, and it ended well, in arbitrage. At first, I think bfx was holding xmr down, as xmr holders on bfx moved their funds to plx, and liquidated some fraction. Later, the rising btcusd clearing was positive for xmrusd, negative for xmrbtc. More recently, as btc upward pressure was reduced by the arbitrage coming into play, xmr enjoyed a bit of the slingshot effect associated with a btc trend rolling over. The compelling question then becomes: what is the natural fourth act in such a drama? Ordinarily I would say a profit-taking sell off should occur, but xmr seems far too closely held for that right now, going by the exchange numbers.
Edit: Or is it the USD profits of the Bitfinex arbitrage opportunity flowing into Monero (via the still to them available Taiwan banks that would be)?
I don't credit the arbitrageurs with that much intelligence and foresight. Usually arbitrageurs are on the risk-averse end, and tend not to hold speculatively - albeit in this case we are talking about crypto-involved arbitrageurs, who are thus more likely to be aware of the merits of Monero, so it is not entirely out of the question - yet I would assume they are more inclined to stock btc if anything crypto.
Edit: corrected "potempkin" to "Potemkin"
