Invites are very apt for a Ponzi too in the beginning. You want to make sure that your friends and inner circle profit before they back out, right?

Not rally. Not everyone uses the automatic interest payments and the transaction volume sums up the payments and the change.
That's why I said "a wild guess".
But on the GLBSE's PPT bonds alone you have over 50k so I would say that there should be at least another 50k on top of it, outside GLBSE.

Interest rates were higher in November (3% per 3 days 3546% interest per year compounded) versus 7% per week now (3273% per year  compounded).

Oh, ok - so another reason to assume that they will be going down in a future...

Well, then all I can tell you, is that you should have invested your capital in BS&T 8 month ago, compound the interests and thus multiply the initial capital few times by now.
And then withdraw it all today - yet before the ponzi collapses

No risk - no gain. Suit yourself.

I'm going with never.   But I'm also going to add a "who gives a crap what he thinks" into the mix.

Still to my knowledge nobody has (publicly) tried to combine pirate's addresses and check out what he might actually do with that money. Does it end up at MtGox after 2-3 hops? At silkroad? Is it transferred in huge batches or only in 0.1 BTC transactions? ALL the information is already out there, in the block chain + in the clients of pirate's customers (who know which addresses are his). We even know quite on time when he pays the interest on Monday, so even without any account holder cooperating we could still get out quite a bit of information there.

Something like http://toolongdidntread.com/category/bitcoin/ developed a bit further could really come in handy...

Operating for 8 months means nothing as long as there are 7% or more per week flowing in (he gives an estimate of ~10% in total per week here in this thread). So far, with all the "pass through" operations, people seem eager so far to throw money at him, so probably he still grows exponentially.

The real test will still be when (if?!) he decides to lower interest and some big accounts might drop out + withdraw. This will happen this year or latest next year - after that there won't be enough BTC mined to pay for his interest and it would be obvious that he pays it from deposits. So for coin_toss: in ~2 years we'll see who was right, if there is a "bank run" after lowered interest rates.

Yes, but by then it'd be obvious.