no i wouldnt because ponzis do pay out early using money from others to maintain the cover of being not a scam. i will bet but it has to be longer term. i have no doubt on launch garza will pay $20 to people long term sustainability is not possible. 6 months allows SEC etc to prosecute him and it to be exposed.

OK time to ante up. lets do a community vs community bet. in 6 months josh garza will be exposed. paycoin will continue to exist as we cant control mining/staking ops in the network unless SEC killstheir centralised center.

i'll do 5 BTC. if there is enough interest and balls to match side to side lets do this. who else is in. state for or against GAW and BTC amount

Is it plaid? I hear the plaid means your ultra smart.

Not all of the remaining probability is concentrated in the scam possibility. I put around 20 that it's completely real, 30 that it's outright scam and will collapse less than a month, 10 that it is outright scam but will take up to six months, 30 that it is real but will have people selling heavily to put down the price temporarily, but will then recover, and the remaining 10 on everything else. (These are quick estimates, likely to be close to my actual credences.)

If you call anyone who defends it a shill, I think you should have at least a 90% credence concentrated in the "it's a deliberate scam". I have around a 40% credence in that. There's no real way to bet on that directly, so we have to use price or something similiar, which makes the probabilities shift. If you have a way to capture the "deliberate scam" event in a well defined way that people won't argue over afterwards, share it and I'll see.

What are your own credences for each of the major outcomes? If you prefer to deal with price then give for the following ranges: 0-5,5-10,10-15,15-19,19-25,25+ for a Feb 1st outcome. If you want you can also give for a later date. Then we can see differences of opinion and agree on a bet.

The funny thing is the trolls bitch here about HT deleting posts.   I've never had a post on hash talk deleted, but on this thread my posts do get deleted.  Trolls can say any vial thing they want, but if you stand up to them you risk getting your post deleted.        

I find the whole thing very funny!    Some here are even trying to archive HT, what a lame use of time and computer resources!   If you tear apart a persons posts, anyone can be made to look like a liar.   That doesn't mean they are lying!    Things change over time and those that don't change in the crypto world just lose out.  That is just the way it is.  

This thread is out of control because many people here aren't interested in anything other than trying to shout scam.   They don't care that what is being done or how it may work out, they just want to scream scam.   There isn't any logic or reason for it.

Well my deleted posts were over the line so I'm not complaining about that.   I'm just pointing out there have been a lot of vial things posted at me and others on this thread that haven't been deleted!   Makes one think, doesn't it?  



(Seriously, how anyone could maintain order on 500+ page thread is beyond me so I realize the uneven application isn't probably intended.)    

Actually NO it doesn't make one think at all. We don't need order nor want it. If you are going to be a complete fucking asshole and say shit that threatens others or breaks the few rules this forum has then yes, those posts need to be deleted. However, I do see you're still allowed to run your bitch mouth around here even after having your posts deleted. That would never happen on HT. You would be banned. Unless of course you're the CEO. Then your posts are deleted in an attempt to hide your blatant lies and you are not banned but you get to continue to lie and delete afterwards.

Actually I didn't break any rules if you just didn't.   I never swore at anyone either!       I never say stuff that threatens others or create posts that break forum rules.   So you can chew on that.   My over the line posts (2) were pointing out that a troll was just be a jerk.   That is what got deleted, but only partially.        

For the record you sound clueless about what happens on HT.   There are many people their that have had tiffs with the CEO and have even been banned but are back and allowed on there.    There was unjustified banning going on in the past but hopefully that problem has been fixed.    

I also did point out on HashTalk before that someone was being a real jerk because they were PM'ing people and pushing referral links and those posts were never deleted.   So I've actually had more freedom on HT than here!  

flame1012 was spewing vulgar comments and I just posted he was being a jerk.   Maybe it was flame1012's comments that were actually deleted.   I was slightly over the line but his posts were beyond reason.   Anyway posting a screen shot of the deleted post rather would be just picking a fight.  

suchmoon was this you? even if replies get bad can you allow it

I already said I don't have that much, even at the odds I wanted. The best I can for now is my 4 btc to your 40 at the betmoose site.

https://www.betmoose.com/img/bet-image.jpg___________

Paycoin will be more than $15USD by February Options: Yes | No

If you're interested in that transfer 40btc over there and I'll start transferring my coins there too. When my current bet is maxed out I'll put up enough to bet 20btc, and when that's out I'll get the rest.