Well, this bothers me on two fronts then. If there are rentable hashing resources with as much as 100x as much computing power as a RigBox, then it doesn't seem implausible to me to see rentable resources in the next decade that could, within a reasonable amount of time, get a private bitcoin key from a public key. No? What am I missing?
No, because every additional character exponentially increases the effort required to break the key.
But, in 10 years? Imagine that in 10 years a single RigBox is 100x as powerful as today's, and that I can rent 100 of them. That much compute power still isn't enough to get a private key in, say, a few weeks?
Nope not in a 1000 years either.
Large numbers can mess with people's minds but this might help.
A random 10 digit password (95 possible values per digit) is ~ 2^64 or 64 bit. 256 bit isn't 4x as large it is 6,277,101,735,386,680,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 as large (roughly excel needs to round).
If you could crack brute force all possible 64 bit keys in 1 second it would still take roughly 19,904,559,029,003,900,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 centuries to have a 1% chance of brute forcing a private key.
Another way to look at is our sun doesn't have enough energy remaining to power a computer that could count from 0 to 2^256 much less brute force a specific key. That is you build a computer who could use the sun's complete energy output and operated at 100% efficiency it still couldn't count to 2^256 before our star burned out.
So the only risk to a private key is if the SHA-256 algorithm is broken or more likely degraded. By degraded I mean some flaw is discovered that allows you to take a "shortcut" and thus eliminate trillions or quadrillions of keys simultaneously. Even degraded it would likely be very difficult (maybe only of academic interest) to brute force a private key but that would be a good sign to upgrade Bitcoin (and everything else which uses SHA-2) to a stronger algorithm.