Transaction fees will go up, to replace the block rewards.

In one year the % of miner compensation paid by fees for Bitcoin has increased from 0.3% to 2.5%.
http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=7&show_header=true&scale=1&address=

Oct 2012.  
30 BTC per day in fees. 144 blocks per day.  
Average fees per block 0.21 BTC.  
Subsidy per block 50.
Total miner compensation per block 50.21 BTC
Fees as a share of total compensation: 0.4%

Sept 2013.  
90 BTC per day in fees. 144 blocks per day.
Average fees per block 0.62 BTC.
Subsidy per block 50.
Total miner compensation per block 50.21 BTC
Fees as a share of total compensation: 2.5%

This trend has been continuing for a long time.  If we look back further to say Oct 2011 fees were ~ 0.02 BTC per block or 0.0004% of total miner compensation.

The rise in fees as a share of total compensation is due to three factors
a) avg fee per tx.  while the min fee has gone down by a factor of 100x the % of tx paying a fee (any fee) has increased
b) number of tx per day/block.   ~ 100 per day in 2009, ~ 400 per day in 2010, ~5,000 per day in 2011, ~18,000 per day in 2012, ~45,000 per day in 2013
c) the block subsidy decreasing from 50 BTC to 25 BTC (and will decrease to 12.5 BTC in 2016).

As long as those trends continue it is possible that fees will be more than 20% of miner revenue not in a 100 years but by the time of the next subsidy.  As an example.  TX volume in 2016 is 5x higher than today or 300K tx per day.  Average fee per tx is 0.004 BTC (double today).  Block subsidy is reduced to 12.5 BTC.   That puts fees per block at ~4 BTC, the subsidy is 12.5 BTC for total miner reward of 16.5 BTC.  Fees are 4/16.5 = 24%.

Higher tx volume = higher tx per block = higher total tx fees per block.  Even if the fee per tx remains low.  Measuring it in dollars makes no difference.  If fees are 20% of miner total compensation then are 20% of the total compensation in BTC or USD regardless of the exchange rate.

Fees per tx don't have to be high for the total revenue to rise.  As a complete hypothetical in USD terms today miners collect (collectively) ~$180M USD in combined fees and subsidies.  PayPal has a tx volume of ~50 tps and today Bitcoin has a tx volume of ~0.6 tps.  If Bitcoin grew to be as large as PayPal and the average fee per tx was $0.02 that would be $31B a year in miner compensation or >150x higher than today even if the subsidy was zero.


Not possible to say.  How many tx will there be per block 100 years from now?  However if we look forward just 3 years and say IF tx volume keeps growing, and % of txs which are paying grows, and the block subsidy is halved then the % of miner total compensation will rise.  Even if the % of tx that pay a fee doesn't increase AND tx volume doesn't' increase after the subsidy cut rise fees be ~5% of miner total compensation.

Ouch yeah that will throw the average off.   If we exclude the last 10 days then average fee per block in Sept was 0.28 BTC per block or 1.1% of total miner compensation, not as impressive as 2.5% but still fees as a % of BTC revenue tripled in a year.   One interesting note is excluding those accidental high fee txs, the average fee per tx in BTC terms actually declined.  That makes sense because the min mandatory fee was reduced 80%.  An interesting factoid is that compared to a year ago a higher % of tx are paying a fee which IMHO is a good sign.  So more txs, lower fee per paying tx but greater portion of tx paid some fee.  In USD terms, fees paid to miners rose from $300 per day in Oct 2012 to ~$5000 per day in Sept 2013.

http://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees-usd?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&timespan=&scale=1&address=

i havent read all the posts, but my reply to the topic is this.

unless governments change, more tree's are planted and we move away from fossil fuels. the least of our grandkids worries are what happens with the last mined satoshi

I could dump them at a decent profit now but I cannot do that unless my view changes.  And no, 30 BTC is a lot of money for me right now since I'm not even working a regular job at the moment.

 Not to mention I wanna buy an ASICS rig which means I've gotta spend another 50 BTC in the next few days.

This crypto thing ain't cheap.  I sure hope I'm right on either the ASICS rig move, ixCoin or preferably, Both.

I think we'll find out before this year is over - as I feel we'll get news regarding a Bitcoin ETF by then.

Now wait hold on.
I don't know much about about ixcoin but I do know its 13 in the coin market cap.
I also know that they will all be mined by 2015.
Don't short 30BTC worth of ixcoins, that sounds nuts.  
Just hold and don't let pump and dumpers get to you.
Also the ROI of ASIC miners is not a guarantee.
Just keep a cool head and don't be rash man. 

Yeah sorry I skipped the "at a profit" part of your sentence.
I thought you wanted to sell at a loss.

Well they got the supply part of the supply and demand equation down.
Now there needs to be services goods that you can trade for ixcoin for the demand part.