Following this post here I thought about how the next market cycle might unfold.

To recap, I think a full cycle of the form popularised by *that* chart, is a fair assessment of human emotion, market behaviour during speculative bubble. I think the bitcoin price is subject to speculative bubbles. I don't think that the bitcoin price is *purely* a speculative bubble though. I think underlying value based on adoption is also a factor, and I think the market price is a combination of these two factors.

That means each speculative bubble will be bigger than the last, and based off of the underlying value as some function of 'adoption'.

The charts below broadly summarise what I think might unfold:



This is basically the same idea I posted before in the 560k prediction post but from a different perspective, not formulaic but conceptual. Still with the obligatory outlandish price forecast though

Once again attempting to trade on these numbers would be stupid. Instead these numbers are a guide to what one might expect in a 'success' scenario. A scenario that I can't say will happen, so you shouldn't think so either.

*IF* we were to go through another speculative bubble, perhaps driven by wall street this time, then it would probably be much of a much larger magnitude involving much more capital and take much longer. A year long consolidation followed by another year of gradually increasing price trending higher ending in a correction, followed by an exponential bubble phase over several months. Potentially taking us to a price on 4,5 or even six figures.

That's the 'worldwide adoption' model, and the speculative bubble that happens on the way. If it happens. Of course those posting below, know for a fact it won't