Nuggets on Game 1 for me too. Although I doubt the high spreads if it can be covered.
If you believe that they will win in game 1, trust them to cover the spread. Currently, the Moneyline (ML) odds for the Nuggets are only 1.28, so I think that is too low for gambling unless you have great faith in them and would like to bet a decent amount. However, if you're not betting a lot of money, I think -10 with odds of 2.03 would be fine. Sometimes we have doubts about whether the spread will be covered, but often, when we have doubts, it's the easiest bet that we should take.
In the end, you just have to be confident and trust your analysis.
Money line is not that sweet because the Denver Nuggets now are listed as a very heavy favorite because of what seed they've finished the regular season plus they have pulled a stunt that very few can make and that was sweeping a team in a conference finals. So, if you're looking a heavy payout, handicap will be needed but giving a +10 advantage on the Heat might be a bad choice. Nobody can guarantee that of course, so who knows what will happen on their first game.
Ya, this is a case where it seems pretty clear that Denver is going to take game 1. They're more well rested, Jimmy Buckets has an ankle injury, Denver is younger, Denver is playing at home in the mile high city, Denver matches up well against Butler and Bam, Denver had a better season, Denver has been playing together longer as a team, etc...
That leaves pretty bum odds to bet against. I'd almost say it's worth taking the Heat to win with the given odds, but I honestly don't think they have much of a chance. Jokic will shut down Bam, MPJ & BGordon will shut down Butler, and Murray will absolutely go off against Miami's guards. I see Denver winning this series in 5.
You've got a point, mate, it does seem like they're holding the aces. But remember how the Heat has a history of spitting in the face of the bookies, eh? It's a given, Denver's crew is green, revved up, and enjoying home comfort. But don't the toughest conditions mold the strongest champions?
Remember those five head-to-heads in the regular season? Denver clinched it, sure, but doesn't every setback offer a lesson? Maybe the Heat has been sitting back, quietly studying every play Denver has made. They've had a close encounter with the Nuggets' game plan, they've felt their force, and they're hungry to turn the tables. Picture it, Butler and Bam stepping up, rocking Denver on their own stage! Ah, the theatrics! The mystery! Isn't that the essence of this game's allure?