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Re: Bitcoin puzzle transaction ~32 BTC prize to who solves it

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kTimesG

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July 04, 2025, 03:18:46 PM
Last edit: July 04, 2025, 03:32:22 PM by kTimesG

#10863

Quote from: mcdouglasx on July 04, 2025, 02:57:48 PM

Dude, my craps bet (which is actually yours) is exactly what you described as "natural to bet that 6 doesn't appear again in 4 rolls". So if there's anything crappy about it, it was your original statement, which was proven to be false. If you happen to find something's wrong with it, please let me know and I'm happy to refactor it according to your conditionals or whatever. But the results will be identical, since it's simply empirical proof that in whatever 4 rolls (sequential, skipped, timed out and resumed, changing the dice, etc etc etc), any value has a 51.8% chances of showing up at least once. Conditionals are irrelevant, just like skipping is irrelevant. I think you should be the one to go back to the drawing board here.

If you have some other statement about something, or you discover what's wrong with the simulations (not flakes of snow) let me know. Congrats on discovering and demonstrating that there's a 63% chance of success to hit X at least once, when p=1/N, in N tries, btw. No one really bothered to do the math on that one. You're definitely the first.

Off the grid, training pigeons to broadcast signed messages.

mcdouglasx

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Re: Bitcoin puzzle transaction ~32 BTC prize to who solves it

July 04, 2025, 03:42:52 PM

#10864

snip

I'm not interested in falling for your analogies. If you want to refute me, tell me what's wrong with my original script. Otherwise, you'll be endlessly beating around the bush to divert attentionattention you, of course, think you deserve. Your need for prominence is undoubtedly a symptom of a mental illness. I recommend you see a doctor.

https://bt.irlbtc.com/view/1306983.msg65545733#msg65545733

edit:

I meanwhile apply this magic wand, to disappear from my sight.

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Re: Bitcoin puzzle transaction ~32 BTC prize to who solves it

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kTimesG

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July 04, 2025, 04:06:47 PM

#10865

The best argument a Denialist can ever use is the one that makes sure they never get into direct contact with the evidence that goes against what they believe in.

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newsecurity1986

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Re: Bitcoin puzzle transaction ~32 BTC prize to who solves it

July 04, 2025, 04:52:56 PM

#10866

Re: Bitcoin puzzle transaction ~32 BTC prize to who solves it

Congrats on discovering and demonstrating that there's a 63% chance of success to hit X at least once, when p=1/N, in N tries, btw. No one really bothered to do the math on that one. You're definitely the first.

So then, if you're saying the prefix method is mathematically sound, right? Why are you giving it shit?

mcdouglasx

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July 04, 2025, 05:04:01 PM

#10867

Quote from: newsecurity1986 on July 04, 2025, 04:52:56 PM

So then, if you're saying the prefix method is mathematically sound, right? Why are you giving it shit?

Because some people have an outsized ego, a need for attention, and any idea that doesn't come from them should simply be crushed no matter what.

The least they care about is math; all they care about is their need to stand out. They have multiple accounts for this. I don't know what they gain. I don't even look for puzzles, haha, and it's not like we're going to be rewarded here for sharing ideas.

That's why I apply the rule: I share ideas, I don't criticize anyone's ideas, I debate a bit with some haters for fun, and when I get bored, I put them back in the trunk and leave.

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Re: Bitcoin puzzle transaction ~32 BTC prize to who solves it

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kTimesG

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July 04, 2025, 05:17:38 PM

#10868

Quote from: newsecurity1986 on July 04, 2025, 04:52:56 PM

Re: Bitcoin puzzle transaction ~32 BTC prize to who solves it

So then, if you're saying the prefix method is mathematically sound, right? Why are you giving it shit?

N balls in an urn. one is blue, the rest are red.
Extract one ball, if it's blue = success. If it's red: failure.
Put the ball back in the urn.

This gives you an exact 1:1 analogy with either searching for an H160 full hash, or whatever prefix size of it you desire. You can use any other classification criteria as you see fit, the analogy doesn't change.

p = 1/n
trials = n

Probability of failure per extraction: (n-1)/n = 1 - 1/n

Total probability of failure over N extractions: (1 - 1/n) ** n

Probability of success to get the blue ball at least once over N extractions:

p_success = 1 - probability_failure = 1 - (1 - 1/n)**n

This function converges towards 1 - 1/e = 63.212...% as N goes to infinity. It's a very exact number to calculate.

Now: what in the freaking world changes after you put the extracted ball back in the urn?

Answer: NOTHING. That's why the prefix theory is total bullshit, and is one of the reasons this thread is junk science, which I'm retreating from. Feel free to go and pat mcdouglasx, he needs a hug.

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newsecurity1986

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July 04, 2025, 05:41:45 PM

#10869

Quote from: kTimesG on July 04, 2025, 05:17:38 PM

Quote from: newsecurity1986 on July 04, 2025, 04:52:56 PM

Re: Bitcoin puzzle transaction ~32 BTC prize to who solves it

So then, if you're saying the prefix method is mathematically sound, right? Why are you giving it shit?

Listen mate, your fancy urn model with ball replacement shares that same 63% probability on paper, yeah, we all know 1 - 1/e ≈ 0.6321. But quit pretending it's the real deal for crypto hunting. Your abstract math misses three massive practical points:

Keys ain't balls:
Crypto keys are unique and never reused, no "putting back" like your urn nonsense.

Real-world:
Prefix search actually saves work by bailing early when collisions happen. Your urn keeps uselessly drawing balls forever.

Physical constraints matter:
The prefix search exploit actual hardware behavior (sequential scanning + early termination) to boost efficiency. Your model just jerks off in theory land.

The results prove it works in practice 63% success rates don't lie. You're dodging the actual method to wank over abstract models that physically don't function like real crypto searches. Just 'cause the numbers match doesn't make your urn relevant. Stop confusing textbook toys with engine-level optimization.

kTimesG

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July 04, 2025, 05:58:53 PM

#10870

Quote from: newsecurity1986 on July 04, 2025, 05:41:45 PM

Keys ain't balls:
Crypto keys are unique and never reused, no "putting back" like your urn nonsense.

Balls are not the keys, they are the hashes. The keys are irrelevant here. They might as well be random data that gets hashed. This doesn't change in any way any probabilities whatsoever.

Quote from: newsecurity1986 on July 04, 2025, 05:41:45 PM

Real-world:
Prefix search actually saves work by bailing early when collisions happen. Your urn keeps uselessly drawing balls forever.

No, no. The urn does the same bailing just as the prefix search: extractions are skipped once a blue ball comes out. This step is very important, sorry that I forgot to mention it. So, please, once a blue ball comes out, please skip the next few extractions. Then please proceed with the next extraction. I know, it sounds like a no-op, but hey, that's identical to skipping keys.

Quote from: newsecurity1986 on July 04, 2025, 05:41:45 PM

Physical constraints matter:
The prefix search exploit actual hardware behavior (sequential scanning + early termination) to boost efficiency. Your model just jerks off in theory land.

My bad, I totally forgot how much that matters when doing the probability calculations. It definitely impacts the next ball to come out. IMHO I was thinking it's exactly the other way around: not skipping keys helps because you simply compute the next key, instead of a hard reset. My bad again.

Have fun!

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fixedpaul

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Re: Bitcoin puzzle transaction ~32 BTC prize to who solves it

July 04, 2025, 06:03:50 PM

#10871

Quote from: kTimesG on July 04, 2025, 05:17:38 PM

N balls in an urn. one is blue, the rest are red.
Extract one ball, if it's blue = success. If it's red: failure.
Put the ball back in the urn.

Did you know that if you're colorblind, you might actually be able to find the blue ball more easily than someone who can see colors? Let me teach you a trick: ask someone to assign a number to each ball, then apply a hash function to each number, and stick a label with the hash on the ball (the hash function must not be rigged).

Then, ask that person to give you the hash of the red ball, the winning one! Of course, since you're colorblind, you can't see colors, you can only read the hashes, but now you know which one is the winner.

At that point, to find the blue ball, you divide the N balls into blocks. When you find a hash in a block that starts with the same first X bits as the winning one's hash, you discard that whole block, because that prefix was already used in the block, and it's very unlikely that another ball in the same block would share it, unless the hash function is rigged.

With this method, you'll find the blue ball faster, thanks to uniform distribution, 1st grade math, and probabilistic search. But it works only if youre not checking all the balls, because if you do that, then you don't gain any statistical advantage. And it only works if you're colorblind and can use hash functions and prefixes, if you can see colors, then you're stuck with the classic, old, and outdated probabilities of a uniform distribution.

Henark

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Re: Bitcoin puzzle transaction ~32 BTC prize to who solves it

July 04, 2025, 06:05:42 PM

#10872

The strategic recommendation for any serious effort to solve the remaining keys of the puzzle is the adoption of a co-design approach. It is necessary to abandon the pursuit of a purely algorithmic solution and instead simultaneously optimize the attack algorithm for parallelization and the HPC infrastructure for the specific communication patterns that this algorithm generates. The combination of a robust generic attack such as Pollards Rho, potentially accelerated by tools like ECFFT, and executed on a specialized and cost-effective network topology like HammingMesh, represents the most promising and economically viable path to completing this puzzle.

0rzOEJgMjCOt_n-esBR6Ea9b7quTv25OQgktBh5Zf5o

mahmood1356

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Re: Bitcoin puzzle transaction ~32 BTC prize to who solves it

July 04, 2025, 06:06:35 PM
Last edit: July 04, 2025, 06:25:02 PM by mahmood1356

#10873

Quote from: MrGPBit on July 04, 2025, 12:53:44 PM

Quote

I also agree with your opinion. That user "@MrGPBit"
In the chat before me, I also asked the keys I had given and provided me, and now I wrote to me the philosopher wandering the keys !!! This means ridiculing the rest of the users, I only provided these to the progress of users' analysis to get the solution, and nothing else,

@mahmood1356
These prefixes belong
Wandering Philosopher
he published it for everyone

His statement

I haven't searched for 71 in a few weeks, and I am not sure I will get back to searching for it. I'm working on a bigger project and as all of us know, there are only so many minutes in a day lol. But I do have these 48+ bit h160 matches that maybe someone can find useful and maybe lead them to the target address. I am sharing because at the moment, they are of no value to me. Hopefully they will be for someone. Enjoy. Keep hunting. Shooters shoot!

I dont know who you mean by the wandering philosopher, and I should mention that I didnt get this list from anyone. Also, providing this list doesnt mean the presenter should be awarded a medal. I think youve misunderstood the true purpose of this forumthe goal is simply to share approaches, methods, and collective reasoning, not to focus on individuals or the specific contents of what they said
And something you might want to know is the method I used to search for the prefixesyou can use this code, and its not difficult at all.

git clone https://github.com/brichard19/bitcrack.git
cd bitcrack
mkdir build
cd build
cmake ..
make

./bitcrack -c -t 256 -p 1PWo3JeB9j -r 400000000000000000:7FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF -o ~/Desktop/matching_prefixes.txt

newsecurity1986

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Re: Bitcoin puzzle transaction ~32 BTC prize to who solves it

July 04, 2025, 06:19:57 PM

#10874

Quote from: kTimesG on July 04, 2025, 05:58:53 PM

Quote from: newsecurity1986 on July 04, 2025, 05:41:45 PM

Keys ain't balls:
Crypto keys are unique and never reused, no "putting back" like your urn nonsense.

Balls are not the keys, they are the hashes. The keys are irrelevant here. They might as well be random data that gets hashed. This doesn't change in any way any probabilities whatsoever.

Quote from: newsecurity1986 on July 04, 2025, 05:41:45 PM

Real-world:
Prefix search actually saves work by bailing early when collisions happen. Your urn keeps uselessly drawing balls forever.

Quote from: newsecurity1986 on July 04, 2025, 05:41:45 PM

Physical constraints matter:
The prefix search exploit actual hardware behavior (sequential scanning + early termination) to boost efficiency. Your model just jerks off in theory land.

Listen up, tulip breath, your urn model's still smoking legal herbs:

STOP PUTTING HASHES BACK IN THE URN!
SHA-256 ain't some stoned lottery where duplicates magically appear. Each key spits out a unique hash. Your "replacement" fantasy would break Bitcoin's entire security model. Stop hallucinating.

YOU ABORT ON THE WRONG TRIGGER!
Prefix bail on FALSE POSITIVES (collisions), not after finding the real key. Your "skip after blue ball" is like celebrating a wallet crack then quitting, total junkie logic.

HASHING COSTS MORE THAN YOUR RENT!

Advancing keys: cost = 1 joint
Generating hashes: cost = whole coffeeshop inventory
Pretending skipping keys saves work proves you've never touched real hardware.

YOUR OWN MATH CONFIRMED THE 63%!
Stop fighting your own damn probability calculation. The 63% is rock solid because:

Physics of unique keys

Real abortion on collisions

Actual code benchmarks

Your urn's a fantasy bong. Prefix search is working with cryptographic reality. Either run the real simulation (you'll get 63%) or stop clogging the thread with theoretical vomit. The method works, deal with it.

mcdouglasx

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Re: Bitcoin puzzle transaction ~32 BTC prize to who solves it

July 04, 2025, 06:35:48 PM

#10875

Quote from: newsecurity1986 on July 04, 2025, 06:19:57 PM

snip

Friend, I recommend you use the magic wand and you'll be happier. Let them think freely in their own world like everyone else, who either ignores them or humorously goes along with their work.

In short, kTimesG doesn't invalidate prefix searching, it simply ignores that each "stop rule" defines its own success rate.

But anyone who knows math and reads will know who's right.

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