He's right though !

+1

The price wasn't decreasing. The only reason it will decrease now is because of panic. The low volume exchanges make people think gox will follow and go down in price, so it does.

Bubble or not, gox creates more selling then there would be otherwise.

Hourly SMA50, the base of rallies since first $50 hit, failing to hold. And zigzags... They are everywhere.



As well as daily sma20, the border of bollinger negative territory. No breakout.

Hehe

TA does account everything. Good eyes to read required.

I interpret with probability 80% that that was a daily sma20 (middle BB) retest and try to quit from negative territory. And it is failing.

In anyway, break down of $50 should happen, as it was start of wave 5 off 9.77 low, so it should be broken down by correction.

Lucif, I appreciate your posts and it's obvious you put  alot of work into them.

I'm a little confused by something though.

You say a 'break down of $50 should happen', what does this mean ?

Is it a reduction from the current price by $50 suggesting a target of $70 based on the current price of approximately $120 or a 'breakdown' back to the $50 'double bottom' we saw this week ?

It does mean that correction very oftenly, if not said, always, walk on wave 3 territory, which is below $50 USD/BTC.

It could happen... We have positive seasonals until early may

But i agree $50 will certainly be broken in the next decline, whenever that begins. IMO once the PPI hits strongly negative territory and USD deflation really heats up we're going to see some awesome fireworks across many markets, and this will be very profitable for those on the right side of things.

I'm still holding short on the sp500, so far that position has worked out very well. Btw I finally ran a real multi-year correlation study on sp500 and bitcoin in bloomberg software and it came out positive... No surprise here as that's exactly what I've noticed since the earliest days of bitcoin (yet for some reason people argued angrily against the notion that stocks and bitcoin could possibly be correlated! I'll give you a hint though: they are because they're both risk assets and are driven by the same social cycles of greed and fear. It's all psychology...)

I need to rerun it though on detrended data

Enjoy,
BA

Exactly.