understatement of the week.

Not going to take the time to refute what BA says, but its a load of shit and has been explained ad nauseum elsewhere.

His assumptions (and Lucif's, etc.) are as valid, if not more valid, than many of the other views on this forum. This is one of the best threads in Speculation, IMO. I don't use EW religiously, but it proves very interesting during aberrant moves. And many extremely successful traders (especially those who catch market tops/bottoms) swear by it.

We all know there are compelling arguments for bitcoin's further success and equally compelling arguments for a market top, especially with a last leg. I'm bullish bitcoin and alt-coins, but realize that odds do not favor this parabolic rise for bitcoin. Big news could move us up much higher, of course....but it will take bigger news than we've had in the past (e.g., Western Union integrates Bitcoin). Media, hoarding, and lack of liquidity have played much larger roles in this parabolic move than any change in fundamentals.

Stability, even if it means a downward move is ultimately better for the long-term survival of bitcoin. And I see room for alt-coins. I accept valid assumptions supporting bitcoins rise or fall. What I do not accept are the seemingly popular views held on this forum that phantom millionaires and mythical hedge funds will drive this up to $1000.

I'm just not sure what to make of this last leg.....

I think this is awesome advice, not only regarding trading.

Thanks mate.

It applies both ways, no fiat unicorns, but no bitcoin unicorns as well. So neither large upmove nor downmove.

Herd psychology works yes, but when you time frame is long enough to put in a world war, you better make some adjustments to your theory.

General analogies are fine, but unfalsifiable predictions are hardly useful, masters at such prediction usually extend the time frame to arbitrary length to fit in market fluctuation that will somehow "support" their original prediction.

Bitcoin unicorn means: Some big time single holders who supposedly have been hiding away and remain silent for the last 2-3years with some more than 200k holdings, and then one day magically show up to dump them all to crash the market.

BTW, we haven't seen unicorns, but definitely a few manticores, some million dollars single market orders were made on the way up, not sure about their intentions of course.

Someone buying 1,000,000 BTC driving the price up is not because of hording,  it is because one person is trying to buy nearly a tenth of the bitcoins in existence.

The fact that you think the market should be able to handle $140*1,000,000 worth of btc tells me the market is way undervalued.

21 million ever is one of the key features of bitcoin.

What I meant by falsifiability is when you give a statement you have to provide the conditions under which it can be proven false, you call it a bubble and it maybe one but there always should be conditions when satisfied you will concede it's not a bubble. A prediction without targets is useless, or FUD.

After unforeseen bad news there is a definite chance that several large holders are going to cash out more or less simultaneously,
though I can't imagine what could be even worse than a chain-fork. When there is no unforeseen bad news this will only happen under the assumption that these large holders somehow coordinate or at least don't play against each other, the chance of which, given that the number of investors controlling other assets is much larger than the number of large bitcoin investors, is probably as unicorny as new large fiat holders joining the market.