After my own brutal loss with that many matches stuffed in a multi, I hope the odds are for you. I'm nervous of placing any more multibets this week so I took the more conservative approach of single betting the following outcomes:
Napoli - Roma: First goal Napoli @1.69
Napoli - Roma: Double Chance Napoli or Roma @1.31
Arsenal - Wolves: Wolves total goals over 0.5 @1.54
Arsenal - Wolves: BTTS yes @2.02
My EV is only a little less if I bet all these in single than in multi but it's a lot less risky.
First goal Napoli has a 68% chance of winning if I assume Roma scores one goal and I consider that an Asian total of 2 goals means 50% probability for first goal to be Napoli, Asian total 3 implies 67% chance, 4 gives me 75% chance, 5 gives 80% chance and averaging them together gives me 68%. I should use a weighted average but calculating the probability of Asian totals becomes complicated.
Double Chance Napoli or Roma if I assume Roma will only concede one goal, means there's one way for me to lose, and 4 ways to win (0-1, 2-1, 3-1, 4-1) so that's an 80% chance of winning.
Arsenal vs Wolves I'm not expecting more than 3 goals this match. But it doesn't matter, because more goals increase my chances for my other two bets. Wolves are also in good form while Arsenal has a long list of players who won't play this match, so if Arsenal doesn't score here (though likely they will), I still have Wolves over 0.5 to lean on. But I don't think Wolves won't let the game pass without a goal of their own either.
The best part is that it doesn't matter what the outcome of Arsenal vs Wolves match is, matches have become unpredictable these days so other markets provide better chances of winning. my losses are also minimal if 1/4 bets lose.
