That logic assumes that Nxt itself is worth nothing other than the Ardor token value, which is not true.

Even if most of the increase of value comes after ARDR snapshots, once the snapshots end Nxt is still there. Your NXT are still there. And those NXT will also give you a share of the first Ardor child chain token (the transactional token, FNX in dev discussions) when Ardor launches. This besides any news for Nxt 1.0 roadmap.

The change in Nxt valuation in the next three months should reflect the difference in value perception between NXT, ARDR and FNX. Besides the craziness of the market itself.

Remembering other things down the road besides ARDR token (and how much will it trade for once tokens are distributed) is important.
 

https://nxtforum.org/index.php?topic=11478.0

So yes, you can lease and get 100% ardor. Leasing makes your effectiveBalance 0, transferring it to lessee temporarily, lessor's confirmedBalance remains the same.
effectiveBalance is forging power.

No one knows or no one seems to care to answer?

If I have the nxt.server open and forging will I forge blocks that way or do I need to have the nxt wallet open to forge blocks? I have the nxt.server open right now forging for 6 days now and not even a block yet and I have over 200k nxt forging.

With that in mind I think we can estimate how much people have interest in Ardor by observing the price of NXT. At current levels it says not much are interested to acquire Ardor. There were probably only the people from the NXT community and its insiders. Other than that the whales are not in yet. Just a guess.

But if I was a whale, why would I get in at these exhobirant prices? I would rather wait for it to go down again unless I was really interested in Ardor.

Your next block could be a small treasure.
http://nxter.org/the-forging-bounty-lottery-campaign-will-pay-5-million-in-rewards-to-forgers-and-nxt-nodes/

   Does anybody know if we can verify how many Ardor coins we have earned on Poloniex? I am thinking of moving coins to the NXT wallet... Takes quite a while to download. Also if I move the coins do I lose a day(1440 blocks) of tokens?

   Thanks for the info. I guess I will move most of my coins to my wallet.  There is no communication from poloniex about whether or nor you are earning tokens.

I have already accumulated 5 BTC+ worth of NXT.

I would like to know Features and Roadmap of ARDR.

I may go for more.