Not going to lie... The market technicals look pretty bad. A retrace to $33K seems almost certain and I'd put the odds of seeing $29K at about 65% and the odds of hitting sub-$10K at about 35%.
Oh gawd.. .you been in bitcoin for quite a bit of time, and you still don't seem to understand it.... those probabilities are quite likely to be way overly confident in various bearish scenarios.
Maybe you are the one who needs to answer
my hypothetical.. snap out of OgNasty!!!!!!
This is either the mother of all bear traps before we explode upwards, or we will retrace back to the levels before this recent boom, similar to 2018.
Speaking of 2018, I am getting a similar feeling, but instead of late 2018 (right before the November/December capitulation), I am considering that we are more like in a February./March 2019 time frame that is potentially setting us up for something like what had happened in April to June of 2019.. of course, no guarantees, but I can see my scenario as being quite greater than yours.... and of course, we will see. We will see.
What concerns me is that I don't believe Bitcoin has ever fallen below the previous cycle's high before.
Yes... and you have no information that it is going to do it this time... We are going to be lucky to break below the 104 week moving average which is at about $31.5k currently, and 208-week moving average is at about $19.5k, so by the time the BTC price goes down that low -if it were to happen, then we would likely be quite a bit higher.. probably even in the supra $22k with the 208-week moving average... good luck getting below the 208-week moving average, and for sure you are presuming a bear market.. and you are going to need luck with that too... given the totality of what seems to be going on.. which is that we have not yet transitioned to a bear market.. as you are presuming... but hey.. reasonable minds can vary on that... Hopefully you have not sold too much in your preparation for your various bear scenarios that likely has quite a bit less than 50% odds of happening..
At least not that I can remember off the top of my head. Now that the stock to flow model has been invalidated, I think it could be catastrophic for Bitcoin to break the higher levels every cycle trend as well.
Good luck with that nonsense theory. I know that it is popular these days to proclaim that S2F is dead or invalidated or broken.. and that is quite premature to be jumping into such ideas, even if they seem to be popular in recent times... lots of folks likely going to get reckt in their premature presumption that s2F is dead.. and also hopefully you do not end up being one of those who fail/refuse to adequately prepare for UP in your preparations for down that have decently good odds of NOT happening...
The fundamentals have never been stronger and there's so much positive news in the pipeline it's hard to think all the momentum behind Bitcoin could come to a halt, but charts tend to tell the truth pretty accurately of what's to come.
Charts are telling you... hahahahaha Oh my!!!
Personally, I'm still hoping for $100K Bitcoin this year, but I think the odds of that happening are fairly low.
You talking about 2022? This may well be a bettable topic. Are you game to discuss the terms of such bet?
All eyes on regulation as we see if the Biden administration is going to stop companies from grabbing up all the Bitcoin for the balance sheets and sending the price moonward as they control the market.
Regulation is surely one factor, but I doubt that regulation really pushes bitcoin BTC prices in the whole scheme of things... but hey, you have a right to place importance where you would like and see how things play out when you choose various random indicators/factors to help you to determine which way you believe the BTC price to be going.
Time for bears to admit defeat, grab what they can and hold on for the ride.
Nah, I'm getting the feeling that a longish bear period is ahead of us, unfortunately.
Good luck with that.
You and OgNasty....
and sure, probably a few others filled with DOWNity hopium.hahahahahahaha
