you mean 100K?

I honestly can't see it Macsga, I mean the kind of mentality we have just now is like 'well we're up at ~900 now, so we may as well just rally up to 2k! lets go!', but in fact the rally which brought us to ~1240 and thus ~900 was several months of built up pressure and many positive factors including China, regardless of whether China was exploiting the ability to make quick bux through arbitrage or criminals were using it for laundering or just people in China getting on board. I think we have squeezed all of the juice out of this current 'bitcoin bull period' and to take it to the next level will require a slow period of a month or two to let the pressure build up again before the next explosion.

The bears are the ones who sold their coins and are waiting for it to go down.

The bulls are ones who have the coins and are hoping it to go up.

The funny thing is that neither bulls nor bears are in the position to influence the market to their desired direction (because they already made their own move). The success of either is dependent on how to make the other one fold. The forum (incorrectly) constantly talks about bulls buying and bears selling, which is not the case. An upward action is bear running to cover (unless it's virgin buying) and downward action is bulls panicking.

It is generally better to be bull, because the new money raises price on average 24% per month, which is really a lot.

When price has risen to much higher than the trend, however, it may be advantageous to be a bear. From now I will have 3 months to buy back at trendline at a wash, or up to 100% gain. Any number of negative things can happen meanwhile, short-term reducing the price, and my buyback method catches flashcrashes also.

The only thing I don't like with being a bear is that posting in the forum is not fun anymore. If I am right, everyone who lost their shirt is bitter at me (I am very good in explaining how right I was ). If I am wrong, people whose general trackrecord is much weaker, are laughing at me. I have not made my 51% APR by listening to other people of course, but I also don't want to argue with them.

So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

I am certain that a man of your means has better things to do with his time than generate Excel trends through historical data and pretend it reveals secrets about the future.

At $600 the 'trends' were still peaking (as much as I hate to depend on trends), the media was still pumping the bitcoin propaganda and people's interests were being piqued.

Now the trends are down, the media has been saturated (something thats hard for bitcoiners to accept, what people actually would just ignore our bitcoin arcitles???) and we are yesterday's news.

As far as not knowing how much 'pressure' is left. It's pretty obvious, we've been flapping off this ~1k resistance like a wet fish for for a while now, the only pressure that's left is in bull's heads.

Especially as I reveal a secret to you: just yesterday I hired an excel-wiz to crunch the numbers, and he can even post the charts here! The ominous lack of visualization is just my inability to transmit the graphics

I'd be curious to see how that backtests, actually. I believe Quantopian has integrated some Bitcoin data.

Still, Bitcoin has only been at the ATH for a few brief periods in its history, so I don't know if the data set is large enough to establish anything with any certainty.

If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.

You don't know any folks that know how to do system dynamics modeling, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.

This is a system driven by mass adoption of an invention, which has been modeled before and can be modeled here.

I should clarify: a system dynamics model won't help you with your daytrading, but it WILL provide the sort of signals rpietila is seeking about bitcoins being overbought/oversold.

My bearish call was about 7 hours after China popped in 19th November, public the following day. My correct calls have been to sell ALL bitcoins in 2011 for $25 (never before, nor ever after), and buy back at $2-$3 (which I did follow myself).

The fact that after the actual pop in November, the old steam still inflated the bubble to almost twice the size is fun

Perhaps selling some more today - every day mounts more evidence that it's not going anywhere.