Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right?
No. Math says that it takes 10x more everything to make the price rise from 10x higher level.
We do not have 10 times more anything, compared to last summer. 5 times we have, so the price is overvalued by a factor of 2, and will go down -50%.
I have thousands of lines of research on the subject but nobody reads it anyway so why even post...
Profoundly incorrect.
lrn2pricediscovery
I really believe that Risto is seriously trolling in here. It's virtually IMPOSSIBLE to predict ANYTHING for sure into such a system like BTC. A serious prediction of ANY chaotic system (not one like we're observing here, which may as well be the mother of all chaotic systems) would have been in the timeframe of minutes or hours at max, not days; nor weeks.
ANY data provided and calculated may as well be proved as right, also as wrong. If he managed to make it based onto his calculations it's good for him and may as well define a brand new IQ entity by himself. I seriously salute him! But I don't think he did it only because of them. Luck is a special and important factor in this.
Just saying (if you want theoretical proof I can also support what I've just typed).
Again: system dynamics DOES have approaches for things like Bitcoin, where the model is simply of questionable accuracy instead of completely worthless.
