A bull trap wouldn't happen until after all the ETFs get approved....so early next year.

Either that, or Gary punts again on the very first ones just to be a dick (and to benefit his shorting buddies), sending bitcoin down.

If you can time the market, with the past history of halvings, it's easy money.

Of course, a lot of people overrate their abilities but the effect is the same.

Bitcoin Price $44k Then All Bitcoiner... happy & happy 
HODL ,, ! Don't Sell your BTCBTC

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

That and china kicking the miners out in april.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

I just hate getting too wedded to any narrow kinds of expectations including explanations that too much narrow in on single explanations - even though surely there are some events that affect BTC price performance on the margins, but we cannot relive history so we are locked into what happened versus what would have happened if all other factors were to remain the same and one of the factors were changed, such as china did not kick out miners in 2021 or what if the BTC spot ETFs are approved by early 2024 or what if they are not.  

The past is a bit easier to ascribe explanations for what has already happened (in the even that we can agree about what happened or how to frame it), versus coming up with a variety of scenarios for a future that has not yet played out - even though we can attempt to figure out where we are at based on from where we came, which might help us to figure out scenarios that are more likely than others... but even if we pick a base case and we calculate a variety of scenarios, maybe even the scenario that is the most likely to happen, cannot even muster up solid odds of more than 40%...but out of all of the various scenarios the 40% one has the highest odds of any of them.. but even if it has the highest odds, it does not mean that the scenario with the highest odds is going to end up playing out, otherwise wouldn't those folks who bet on the highest odds be richie...  

Anyhow, maybe I am devolving into too much abstraction?.. and maybe 2024 might be the more bullish of the years.. if comparing 2024 and 2025?  and maybe we end up getting a double top with one in 2024 and then the second one in 2026... does not really matter very much to me, but until we see otherwise (in other words at this particular point in the cycle), I am still sticking mostly with the idea that the top of the tippity top for this cycle is likely going to be in 2025, but surely we could have facts in 2024 that end up playing out that cause some needs to reassess beliefs about what may or may not end up happening in 2025 and/or beliefs about what may or may not end up happening in 2026.


Even though a lot of Binance BTC left the exchange, there is no evidence that they were forcefully exited out of their long positions, as is the case with FTX.

Binance is not even close to the level of fuckery and criminality of the FTX fraudsters, including but not limited to that dweeb SBF.

And, don't get me going on bullshit, hyped, false and misleading comparisons of SBF and CZ.  CZ is largely getting manipulated with both an excessively overreaching USA Government and also disingenuine moving of various goal posts.


I would consider it relevant to this here thread if it had something to do with dee cornz.

I would never consider that HODLing shitcoins would be a good thing or a goal, which seems to be a message contained within that there meme.


Cited for image.


Fuck crypto.


I was kind of wondering about some variation of that question.

You know that I mostly considered the $15,479 bottom to be in around the time of our going up past $30k the second time in this rebound.. which would have been in June.. around the time that I "suffered" my Binance error...

so then my recent considerations had to do more with whether $30k might ever get breached again, and surely it would be dangerous to remove all buy orders below $30k, even though most likely it should be safe to remove most if not all of them below $20k.

Call me names if you like.. but I am no Saylor, and I don't mind having gobble-dee-goos of cash.. even though it is just sitting there not really doing much of anything.. and yeah, after my first few years in bitcoin, I remained somewhat nervous about holding so much cash, but gosh there were so many times in which I ended up getting nervous because I was running out of cash.. and I am not even sure if I need to list all of the times and the various kinds of remedies that I had to try to figure out so that I would not feel that I was running out of cash... and each cycle has been getting better and better and better to have extra cash that is just available.. but how many of us mostly BTC HODLers were sitting on sufficient cash after the BTC prices went below $25k in June 2022?  The ONLY folks who I recall bragging about how much cash they had were the no coiners and low coiners, and gotta take those guys with a decently large grain of salt, for sure.

So, yeah we don't really need cash in times like this.. so I don't know what to say, further - except that it does seem that I have more BTC this time around than I had in 2021 when we were going up (both the first time in early 2021 and the second time in late 2021 - which I think that the second time I had more BTC than the first time, and sure I would have to check my details more specifically).. so that having more BTC phenomena is a kind of progress that is within the system of being mostly a HODLer. .even a HODLer who doesn't really have anything against spending BTC, even though I would say that I really was not trying to get more BTC since early 2021 (because even in 2021, I felt that I had more than enough BTC) because it is kind of a side-effect to end up having more BTC.. in spite certain kinds of spendenngs along the way...

What do you think about bottoms?  Do you believe that we are going up from here, and no more bottoms?  By the way, we heard a lot of "down before up" since October, and those calls have not played out very well, so far.  Sooner or later one of those "down before up" calls will end up playing out correctly, if anyone still dares to proclaim such a thing, again.  

People do seem to be top oriented, but bottoms seem to be more important for valuing and evaluating your investment.... at least if someone is a long term HODLer and even still mostly considering himself as a BTC accumulator.

I suppose when people do not ladder sell at various increments, then they get kind of obsessed about when to sell and how much to sell.. and sure if you don't want to sell in $1k increments (or my current $1,500 increments, then maybe you can opt for $8k or $12k increments.. or yeah, surely nothing wrong with round numbers when talking about increments, as long as you are not placing your actual sell orders at round numbers.

Even if you don't use increments, you are likely still not going to get much closer to the top by trying to guess the top.

Yeah some people believe that they have tops figured out, and they are really hard to know, so maybe that is another reason why bottoms are better because even though bottoms are also not really knowable, they seem to be quite a bit more knowable than bottoms, so maybe that is a reason why I seem to like bottoms much more than tops.


One of the great things about using ranges, it is nearly inevitable that you are going to be correct.. or at least "kind of correct."


Even a 30% correction does not quite bring us below $31k... and surely, I am not even saying any kind of "meaningful" correction is necessary.. but I could surely imagine 20% or more at some point.. and right now that would be right around $35k.. but if we wait until we get to $55k (that would be "up before down"), then a 20% only brings us back to our current price. so maybe go up to $55k and then get up to a 36% correction .. that would be a correction back down to $35k.

I am not even saying that any of that would be necessary, but one of the tendency with some of the BIGGER corrections is to really take advantage of momentum, when momentum is starting to go in your favor to really push it.. but hey, who can really say.. ... even though BIG corrections make more sense now, and not going back below the 200-week moving average which is currently at $29,161 (and moving up around $25 per day).

I think that the guys who were calling for those kinds of big corrections that were to take us 10% or more below the 200-week moving average were just way  too hopeful, even though we did get quite a bit of time that was more than 10% below the 200-week moving average, and maybe those times are completely gone.  Maybe? perhaps?


That is also the shitcoin USDC.. which is even worse than USD T.. not that I am against Tether in any kind of substantive or meaningful way.


Doesn't hurt to have a few "down before up" proclamations weaved into the mix.

#justsaying.

You're right the history will repeat itself again and the ones who can really get the idea by looking at the charts will definitely take advantage of the current situation and accumulate as much Bitcoin as they possibly can. The money is easy for the ones who trust Bitcoin and who accumulate it in such times. We still haven't seen the ATH which we will see in the next 2 years. I would say buy and hold and sell when you see the price over $120k and surely after that we may see a good correction.