Things are about to get wild. Anybody looking at new cars yet? Hit me up for a free Tesla test drive. Lol
I thought a new all time high before the halving was an impossibility a few months ago. Now Im wondering what is going to stop it from happening once we make another move up.
Well, yeah, the thing is that we are right between don't wake me up zone and no man's land, and so maybe part of the question remains whether we spent enough time in don't wake me up zone in order to make it all the way through no man's land.
I am not going to proclaim to know the answers, but it is not easy to stay asleep now that "we"
and not even royal this time, are actually "on the edge"
I have no doubt that 60k will come this week... and we would break the pattern if the ATH comes before the halving...
Yeah, but so what?
Bitcoin is always breaking the pattern.
We do not have enough cycles to really lock in, even though all of the cycles end up resembling each other a lot in retrospect.
In this case, breaking the pattern, I ask the more experienced here: What would be the thesis of identifying the target?
What is the purpose of a target? Selling at the top and buying back? Many of us here are not playing that game, even though I know it can be tempting. It seems if you have enough BTC, then you just shave some off at various points along the way, and if you do not have enough BTC, then you are not quite ready to be engaged in the shaving off methodology.
You have ONLY been registered on the forum for 6 months..
If we use your forum registration date as a proxy for when you got into BTC, then holy fucking shit, you have not even come close to being in BTC for a whole cycle..
What are you wanting to do? Trade the cycle? It is hard to presume that you have enough corn to be fucking around like that..
But hey you can do what you like..
There are a lot of guys that try to play the waves, and I don't recommend that approach, but hey you are your own person, so you can do what you like... and maybe it will work out and maybe you will be the exception. They do exist, even though some of us prefer a more solid strategy.. which is accumulate, even though it is likely to hurt the first whole cycle.
since we would only have psychological targets... I know that no one has a crystal ball, but I wanted to know, if possible, what yours theory is.
there is psychological and financial.. and it seems to me that psychological follows from developing some kind of a good financial plan with good practices. then you should be able to rest.. even though the first whole cycle is likely going to be challenging..
In the bear market, I used partial purchases on a 50% price drop to take advantage of a possible pullback... and then larger entries on a 70-75% price drop from the ATH
Well maybe you have accumulated enough cornz, then? But if you are still worried about if you have enough, then shouldn't you continue to buy until you get to the point of having enough? Maybe you should tell us what you plan to do?
However, I still feel a little unsure about identifying the target, I know that the best way is to gradually go out at the average price.
Yeah, you are ONLY selling to buy back, and ultimately you don't have enough. .so you want to buy back... so you are hoping that the price drops after you sell... and it sounds like you want to sell everything... seems pretty risky.. but it might work out for you.
Perhaps? perhaps?
Unfortunately, or fortunately (depends on your point of view) I still need to use position trade to be able to build capital.
Not everyone believe that trading is a way to build capital. .especially with bitcoin...
[edited out]
Well what is your avg cost of your corn?
Ie if you spent 30k for 1 btc. and want to sell 10% right now at 53k it means you turned 3000 into 5300.
Since you want to trade you could do a ladder up for 50% of your corn which is not terrible.
Ie out of 1 btc
0.1 at 53,100
0.1 at 58,300
0.1 at 63,200
0.1 at 68,100
0.1 at 74,050
I know traders want to play these swings, but much of that is in the middle of no man's zone... so if we go with your hypothetical, then you could have staggered sales like that, but I would probably cut them down by 75% or so, and so they might be 0.025-ish BTC each... especially if the goal might be to accumulate BTC... maybe once the price gets in the $80k territory, then maybe the ladder amounts could increase to 0.075 BTC or something like that for every $5k-ish price increase.
One of the problems with someone still wanting to accumulate, they might be selling with one hand and buying with the other, so sometimes it might be a bit difficult to make progress accumulating and keeping your head straight if your goal is to ultimately want to accumulate enough BTC to get to fuck you status or something like that.
that leaves you with .5 btc and over 31,675 cash
which would not be a terrible partial exit for a trader.
Doesn't seem that great to me to be selling half of your stash in the middle of no man's zone with an expectation of being able to buy back.. seems a little retarded, if you really think about it.
To all dca and hodl people the above is a method for a person looking to trade.
I doubt that criptoevangelista is really a trader, even though he believes that he needs to employ trading strategies.. ..
A lot of these guys are trying to accumulate more bitcoin (or other kinds of wealth) so that they can get themselves to a position to have a lot of value, but they are afraid of BTC's volatility so they don't want to be sitting in negative value while they are accumulating coins.. so maybe they have impatience.. but they may well never get to a state of solid positive values if they are fucking around with selling too much too soon... especially if they are still pretty early in their BTC accumulation stage of their BTC journey.
myself
I held 85% of my btc
That is a good idea. If you are ONLY selling 15% of your holdings, then that would be more practical.. so why the fuck didn't you suggest that criptoevangelista only sell 15% of his holdings?
Historically you did not hold 85% of your BTC, so maybe you are changing your strategy.. which that is a good sign, even for an old-bugger like you... but the thing is that you likely want to stay somewhat more liquid or to be able to dip into your principle, since you are more elderly, so for you, it may well be safer to have more in cash than someone who is not as elderly.. .but yeah, I am not sure about the balance, because a person who is regularly investing might keep 3-6 months in an emergency fund and even longer than that if they have unstable finances, and they may well have other reserves and a float depending on what they are doing.. ..
yet a more elderly person might have way more cash, whether it is earning for them or not, and part of the reason that they can keep so much cash would be that they may well have 5 to 20 years of income in the their principle in some kind of cold storage.. that is presuming if they have not made it to entry level fuck you status which is to have 20 to 30 years of their principle in more of a cold storage... and yeah, of course the cold storage of assets does not have to ONLY be bitcoin, even though many of have likely learned ways to keep decent amounts of bitcoin as our value.
and did a ladder up that still has 2 legs left.
I have two sell orders in
61,1[u]xx[/u]
69,7xx
FTFY I hope that you are making those numbers up, since it is probably not a good practice to be sharing exact numbers.. not only for yourself, but to set good examples for other members who might not realize any possible impact.
I am doing a dca with my signature earnings
Aren't you paid in bitcoin? That just means that whenever you get paid, you hang onto the proceeds from your signature campaign.. . and yeah, guys could do that partly in terms of hanging onto the BTC from their signature campaign or even all of the proceeds from their signature campaign, as you seem to be saying that you are doing.
[edited out]
You should ask JJG about that.
I already chimed in.. I couldn't help my lil selfie.
I doubt that my answer is what any trader wannabe newbie is going to want to hear... but we are in a public thread, so the answer is an attempt to be somewhat generic...
