Bitcoin could break ATH upcoming week.
Or not. I really would love to see something new in btc.
say 84k pre half.
Your wish has increasingly decent chances to be granted, so in that regard, $84k seems quite likely to play out on or before the halvening (which is right around April 19-21-ish), or at least in the $78k to $82k or more, which might include $84k.
Now, if we were to attempt to assign odds.. maybe I might be so bold as to proclaim $78k to $83k on or before the halvening to have odds of 57/43 and getting up to $84k or greater I would guess to be perhaps 55.555555/44.444444.. so looking good, but surely no promises from this here cat. .not that I know much of anything beyond having "
feelings.tinglilings"
AND this is why when CBOE announced they would tame bitcoin it was not an idle threat.
Fortunately all they managed to do was cool it.
Which btw, this is what is wrong with S2f model as I mentioned back then, it does not take derivatives into account.
*far be it from me to say I told you so.
You are premature in proclaiming the stock to flow model as dead.
#justsayingNot broken just incorrect.
I pointed out originally that this variable was not part of his equation initially and IIRC you agreed with me then.
I am not sure if we disagree or not.. My memory is fading, even though I am not much of a fan of those who poo-poo stock to flow - even though PlanB likely needs to be poo-pooed a bit more for the level of some of his proclamations of certainty, but that might be more of a problem of delivery rather than faultiness of the underlying ideas.
Overall I continue to consider stock to flow to be a great model, even if it has been wrong with specifics and likely continue to be wrong with specifics, but still it seems that BTC prices mostly stay within normal ranges - even though maybe dragging down the mean and/or dragging down what would be considered normal ranges even accounting for some times going within 1 or 2 standard deviations outside of the range.
Part of the reason that I appreciate stock to flow so much is that it largely relies on the ongoing upward movement of the 200-WMA as it's bottom, yet of course, it is going to not necessarily be correct about the spot price, and I don't give as many shits about spot price since many of us recognize and appreciate that spot price is going to continue to be all over the place, while at the same time likely mostly be inclining upwardly and continuing to move the 200-WMA upwardly, which seems to be the main punchline that the stock-to-flow model has historically shown and continues to show.
Bitcoin could break ATH upcoming week.
I also have this believe but if you look the market currently you would know that the selling pressure is actually holding back the market from breaking out $64k to $65k above, the buying pressure is low meaning some early investor are taking profits.
lol
Huh?
What selling pressure?
** (even if my response would have had been more timely.. it should be considered quite amazing that we are hardly getting any BTC price corrections after going up $12k within 50 hours and then merely correcting around $5k-ish.. and then dabbling around in mostly a $2k to $3k correction zone for a few days..
You must be new around these here parts..
Wait........
**no one is going to be dumb enough to take profits in noman's land.. especially not the longer term investors.. that's part of the reason that it can be labeled as no man's land since the only peeps selling in these here parts are newbies who think that everyone else is selling (or would be or should be selling) and they are too caught up in watching 1-minute candles. [edited out]
Yes exactly this is what I meant mate!
Those people do not count for much of anything.. .. they cannot move the market, and perhaps even the ones just coming into bitcoin since October 2023 are not early enough to move the market... there is too much buying pressure and momentum and all that good stuff that makes no man's land a place to not be selling.. yet at the same time we did move into noman's land quite quickly.. but we are still retaining it.. so it is hard to even say it was too quickly..
You should be thinking about investors who are 4 years or longer and figure out what they are doing.. if that is even a potentially important way to be thinking about these kinds of short-term BTC price movement matters (aka noise)..
[edited out]
A nov 2022 that got in at 16k can make a solid profit . buy a coin at 16k
sell .5 coin at 62k.
you turned 16 k into 31k and still have 0.5 btc
Still sounds dumb to be selling in the middle of no man's zone.. especially a whole half of a coin. Maybe sell 0.1 or 0.2 at the most... but still seems pretty short-sighted, absent some other facts to explain.. and another thing, short term players/traders who bought at the bottom like that likely already sold..
[edited out]
But one thing again how do we know if someone at this point still hold till now?
Like some Newbie investors can't exercise patient to hold till this $64k except for the HODler's who know the real game in bitcoin holdings.
There is no problem selling small amounts at various points, but you should be considering based on your own situation rather than thinking about what others are doing.
If you are nervous about it, then sell some.. but you might be regretting selling too much too soon, so you have to be careful with how you manage these matters, especially if you are still trying to accumulate coins.. so there should be no rush to sell them, merely because you can get some profits... but you gotta make those kinds of calculations for yourself. including do you have enough and when you might feel comfortable to start shaving some profits.
Looking at your forum registration date, sure it is possible that you might have had been able to accumulate and to over accumulate in the last couple of years, but you probably still should consider how careful you might need to be in terms of overly shaving off profits.. unless maybe you worked something out in terms my raking tool.. as I mentioned in
a post that I just made a few hours ago.
