Yeah.. last cycle I had
my highest range starting from $1.5 million and higher (with around 0.5% odds), so this cycle has gotta be higher than that, unless I happened to have been wrong the last time around with my assignment of possibilities.. I am not going t concede the assignment to have had been wrong, even though surely the outcome showed that such prices would not even come close to being met within the terms that I had outlined...
yet still I would suggest ultra bullish for this particular cycle has to at least get close to $1 million .. or perhaps sub $1 million and higher (such as $800k plus).. would also be acceptable in order to really attempt to recognize and appreciate some of the underlying dynamics that push upon my lil precious prices.. so in that regards to $250k as a "ultra-bullish price target" would maybe be on the relative conservative or perhaps mid-range side of bullish. even though sure there is ONLY around a 3.2x-ish difference between $250k versus $800k plus.
I have read your posts on this and others. The problem I have though is assigning any kind of probability to numbers above 250, sure there is a very tiny weeny .% probability and to me they are all like pie in the sky and not realistic. Its easy on one hand to say its only a "3.2x-is difference" but based on market cap your talking about going from ~1.3T and ~70k spot to 13T and ~700k spot. I cant wrap my head around that much capital injection happening this cycle. Dont get me wrong it would be great, and I might be severely underestimating retail fomo and etf + other cap injections along the way during this bull but at the same time lets be realistic.
I have a possible solution to your puzzle: this "cycle" will continue for longer than expected.
This way, it could get to 13T in about seven years at about 40% appreciation/year (on average) or roughly 2X of Nasdaq.
Or, get there sooner, say, by 2029 (at 60% a year) and then undergo a long term bear.
Witness a 8 year (about) bull market in Gold after ETF approval, followed by a 3-6 year bear (depending if you count from the lows or from the change in trend) and now 6-9 years of continuing bull.
Imho, we would get something similar, but not exactly, of course.
