Whether good or bad, it largely ends up just reinforcing the Dollar Milk Shake theory.. so that more capital is going to be attracted to the dollar rather than the fiats that lowered their rates.  The dollar does not need to follow, and maybe the fact that other fiats are caving in to lower their interest rates will allow the dollar to stop from doing it.. or waiting before it does it.

Of course bitcoin is better than all of them, and some folks know it and other do not..


In other words, all of the fiats are fucked.. just that some are more fucked than others.

Regarding shiny ass:  No comment. 


Regarding big ass:  No comment.






Regarding big shiny ass:   




We probably need to see how these matters play out, but you might be correct about some kind of a future need to reconsider whether Bitstamp remains a good overall barometer of BTC price dynamics.


But you are still not into it - just saying.


You cannot think about the lowest price that you ever saw as if that was some kind of reasonable  entry.... that is just fantasyland.. to be thinking like that.. .. but even if you are whimpy and/or were whimpy in your thinking about bitcoin, you might have just considered that you could have had been investing into bitcoin in a kind of whimpy way between mid 2012 and mid-2016.. Even if you just bought $10 per week, you would still have had invested nearly $2,100, yet you would have had accumulated just over 44 BTC, so that surely would not be a bad place to be in terms of thinking about a kind of whimpy way to get into bitcoin.. but maybe not feeling as if you need to get out.. but part of your problem (and your problem that continues) is that you cannot resist to sell as soon as you get 40% to 100% profits.. so you never would have been able to hang onto your investment, even if you had invested pretty damned whimpily.

Even though you seem to believe that you had gotten over you issue of wanting to sell (and take profits), you still have such a similar problem of not being able to resist the temptation to sell way too many too soon... and you hardly have any ability to hold onto enough, so that maybe if the price is going up, you end up blowing your whole wadd.. and you only hold a fraction of what you should have had held.

We can even change the timeframe and change the amount, and I bet that you have not even beat a strict DCA return over 4 years.

Let's say that you started to invest $100 per week into bitcoin in mid-2016 and you invested for 4 years.  You would have still ended up investing right around $21k into bitcoin and you would have had accumulated right around 9.2 BTC, and not even that would be a bad place to be right now.

Right now, we have to take even a worse case scenario, and then we might say that we started  investing in mid 2020.. but instead we have to up the investment by 10x, and say that we started to invest $1k per week and for 4 years, and we would still have had gotten nearly 8 BTC out of the deal, even though we would have had to have invested nearly $210k over those 4 years... still not a bad place to be.

Part of trick is to accumulate over a whole cycle and maybe even over more than a whole cycle and then see where you are at, and selling is not part of accumulating.. buying is how you do the accumulating trick, and that is part of the trick that you have not figured out because you seem to believe that selling is part of the way that you accumulate bitcoin, when it is not...

Another thing is that you do not start to sell until you have accumulated enough and/or more than enough, and maybe even if you have accumulated more than enough, you are not selling to accumulate more but instead just selling in relatively small amounts.


Part of the thing is that we are talking about bitcoin, not about all that other various bullshit, so I am not exactly sure bout that calculator, but surely there still may be able to withdraw from whatever traditional assets that you have at a 4% per year rate, yet with bitcoin we can likely withdraw 6-10%  or perhaps even more as long as we have already gathered enough of it.

So if a traditional investment might require $6.6k per month, then there may need to be a $2million investment into various diversified assets and withdrawing at 4% per year.

But with bitcoin, I am thinking that $800k-ish will accomplish the same thing, as long as we are valuing ur bitcoin using the 200-WMA.. and so then we can figure out these kinds of matters with bitcoin and come up with a formula..   which I believe that right now 22.5 BTC is enough to produce the same results.. and perpetually be able to withdraw $6,666 per month and also to keep up with cost of living.  https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy

But, yeah none of us can hold your hands even if some of the tools may well be there.. but you have to get to a certain stash level to be able to start to engage sustainable withdrawal.

And, yeah, maybe by the time we get into our 40s, 50s, and 60s we may well have both traditional investments that maybe at some point we would start to withdraw at 4%-ish, but it seems so much greater to be able to achieve similar if not better sustainable withdrawal with bitcoin and doing 10% per year... but you gotta get there first.. and so we might have some differing opinion levels in regards to what is "getting there" and also if some kind of an additional financial (or number of bitcoins) cushion might be preferable.


22.5 BTC seems enough for a $6,666 per month  (and perhaps even greater) withdrawal rate.


You are probably mixing philipma1957 up with searing... searing is the one who kept talking about having 100  BTC, then he was talking about having 90 BTC and then he disappeared from our conversation, so I suspect that searing made some kind of mistake that maybe relates to his disclosing too much about how much he had.


I doubt that you are completely wrong.. but still.. I am currently thinking that 22.5 BTC is enough.. so it could take another whole cycle or more before 10 BTC is enough.. and then 1 BTC might be another 2-3 cycles further down the road, but yeah, sure it depends on budgets too.. because in many developing locations (or under-developed locations, 10 BTC would currently be enough), but we are trying to start from the presumption of somewhat western standards.. and even within that we can have some differing opinions (including my own evolving to the point that I am willing to proclaim that currently 22.5 BTC to be enough for the default fuck you status).

I understand that you personally AlcoHoDL  require a higher cushion.. and no problem with that, but I still believe that you are requiring too much of a cushion, even though there is no real need to argue that it is better to error a bit on the conservative side rather than the other way around, even though I would proclaim that currently my 22.5 BTC is also conservative.. so we can agree to disagree... and what number are you going with right now?  You need something like 80BTC or some other ridiculous amount in order to start to withdraw $6,666 per month consistently, persistently and perpetually?  For me, that comes off as overkill... but whatever floats your boat.