Why choose such negative scenarios? Sure I mentioned $55k could happen as if it were not too likely, but still I mentioned that it could happen, and even with the SBR, it sounds like it would take some time for that to be established.
There are positive scenarios and negative scenarios, and the negative scenarios don't really seem very likely, and by the time we get through 2025 and half of 2026, then maybe we will be pondering if even 5 digits are going to be possible again.. ? depending on how much BTC's spot price might be able to drag up the 200-WMA in the coming 6-18 months.
I'm trying to understand Sailor's strategy in case of a pullback. Using cash in the company to buy BTC was one thing, but now his company doesn't generate as much cash, and is on a downhill slope. If he relies so much on new money when things are good, he's not going to get any when things are less good, so I only see selling corn as his fallback. And it all looks more and more like a Ponzi.
It wasn't Ponzi when he simply bought it by raising cash via selling uncallable regular stock. AFAIK for those sales, there are no covenants that would force him to sell.
But, now, with preferred stock that has 10 or even 12% coupon, I don't currently see how he can pay that dividend, although it is not much-maybe about 120-125 mil/year/for both tranches of preferred stock.
Perhaps, he will sell calls or puts (or both) on his long stack or simply sell more regular stock to pay?
