[edited out]
Your chart is fantastic. And technicals are king. But fundamentals are the other king. And that will matter as well.
We are setting up for big moves. Down is certainly possible.
Sorry to say.
There can ONLY be one king.
I guess down in the high 60s before tax day... philip will be happily buying...
It seems that there is momentum for continued downity... .. so yeah, the lower we go, then the more that it becomes possible to go even lower, even though we might have thought that it was going to be quite hard to retrace "all" of the Trump pump, but the impossible has not only become possible, it is starting to seem like close to 50% odds if not greater than 50% odds that sub $70k will at least be touched, whether a spike or otherwise.
At the same time, it also seems to me that if we are still "presumptively" in bull market, then breakouts for UP have to "by definition" be greater than breakouts for down, while at the same time, "the trend is your friend," even if it might not quite be enough to break us out of our current bull market..
At this point, I would likely need to see sub $65k in a bit of a sustainable way before I might start to worry that our current bull market no longer is in effect.
By the way, $57k is still currently 25% above the 200-WMA.. so, I have been recently saying that we don't go less than 25% above the 200-WMA during bull markets... so getting close to that price would also make me nervous, including that I am not exactly thrilled by the possibility of getting into the $60ks either.. even though, like Phil I am still buying, but I am not very happy about such buys, since they are largely only insurance kinds of things that make me feel less bad than if I did not have them.
It is not like any of us can really know how crazy macro events can end up fucking around with overall market sentiments for much longer than any of us would like, and if we were to go into a bear market from here, that truly would cause quite a bit of pain, even though I still had been thinking that the point of maximum pain would have had been the BTC price going up rather than it going down, especially for the so many normie low coiners and no coiners in the world that likely constitute somewhere in the ballpark of 99% of the world's population. I thought that the low coiners and no coiners were going to be the ones getting screwed (especially the one who continue to either take no action or remain extremely whimpy in regards to their bitcoin allocation), even though surely if any of them have money, these would be good times to get started in bitcoin and to get into some kind of a regular buying of bitcoin... even though for poor people (and even for many, if not most normies), it surely takes a long time to build up an investment portfolio, whether bitcoin or any other investment portfolio that might include inferior assets. Investing takes a long time, and normies are generally not used to investing in anything outside of their home and/or 401k, and surely many normies don't even have their own home ownership and/or 401k, either.
Edited: Read back through post and made a few tweaks 15 minutes after the original post.
