casascius
Mike Caldwell
VIP
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1386
Merit: 1141
The Casascius 1oz 10BTC Silver Round (w/ Gold B)
|
 |
September 05, 2013, 09:43:38 PM |
|
I believe bitcoin is vulnerable to a well-funded 51% attack, for no other reason than the awareness that the productivity of ASICs scales more exponentially than linearly as funding increases.
I believe bitcoin would quickly recover from a successful 51% attack as "proof of stake tiebreaker" is introduced as a remedy. For example, a remedy that would bring instant results might be a new rule that allows known entities as well as past miners (via their coinbase keys) to publish endorsement signatures on blocks they see/create. These blocks are given a much greater weight than ones without such a signature. Entities doing a good job of endorsing blocks would have their signatures weighted more, and any entities creating disruptive signatures (or at least their public keys) would quickly be banished by the community. The disruption would be days, and at the most, weeks. After the disrtuption, Bitcoin will be permanently stronger.
As an end unto itself, engaging in a 51% attack would be so futile as to not be worth it. As always, a 51% attack constitutes nothing more than the ability to prevent transactions from confirming as well as reversing them... not stealing or creating bitcoins (other than via mining).
But being able to cause the days/weeks disruption at a time of one's choosing may be a very valuable tool for a state's (or banking industry) arsenal. There's value in temporarily disrupting the network to somebody, and that value is in the eye of the beholder.
To that end, that's where I'd think of what the NSA (or any other state actor) may have put effort.
The question is, does someone, somewhere, have a lot of dormant mining power sitting there just in case? I say it's safe to assume yes, and it's just a matter of when will it be worth it for them to use that to cause a temporary disruption to Bitcoin. If you have only got one chance to rock the world of Bitcoin, it's reaosnable to assume you're going to want to time it for maximum value.
Even if so, I don't think anyone's bitcoins sitting in safe wallets (consisting of properly-generated properly-stored offline addresses that have never been used for sending payments) are at risk... only thing at risk is the temporary loss in confidence and in turn the USD/BTC value if/when such an entity decides to pull off such an attack.
|