What is more profitable then? Forge using 1 big account (1M NXT) or a lot of small ones (100 x 10K NXT)?
Btw, this question itself can be answered without any of the game-theory math I did above:
Because the 1440 blocks out-of-the-game period is independent of the account's balance, it is obvious that the smaller the account you are using for the forging the better. If you have one big account, you're completely out of the block creation process for 1440 blocks, but if you have it distributed to many small ones, only one of them is disables so you still have most of your accounts taking part in the lottery.
So without further thinking it can be seen that this 1440 block disabling period is unfair towards big accounts and incentivises splitting them to small ones.
Edit: Ok, this may not be true... do I understand correctly that once an account created a block, it's effective balance is zeroed out for 1440 blocks? If not than what I wrote in _this_ post is incorrect, but doesn't change what I wrote above about using the second-best accounts for forging.
I'm curious, even if you are moving a bunch of small stake accounts around, those are still limited by 1440 blocks before they can forge. This is the same situation as one large account. So unless you can predict 1440 blocks into the future (which is impossible, due to forgers dropping in and out of the network randomly), wouldn't both be equal?
If we are talking about pre-allocating accounts (to bypass the 1440 block restriction), not counting the massive fees required (at least 2 NXT per account currently), wouldn't the chance still be the same? If you divide your stake X by N accounts, (X/N)*N = X, still the original stake.
As for your edit, I don't think that is true, because I personally have generated a block, then another 50 blocks later.