They don't have reserve market but the chart looks almost exactly the same. Only the amplitudes of "dumps" and "revaluations" are smaller and their time is few weeks off. How can you explain that?
Riseman, yes on checking that you appear to have a point. Here's the XMR profile overlayed on top (in blue) and it's almost identical.
So dEBRUYNE is right that there is more common background than I've done justice to in my replies to him. So that would suggest that there is still plenty slack and that the "currency market" isn't yet significantly restricted enough by the reserve market for it to diverge noticeably in trading and valuation profile from the rest of the market.
As far as I see such model ensures that we have a zigzag-like downward movement
I outlined one theory of how I saw that working here....
FOR A GIVEN SIZE OF CURRENCY MARKET - DOLLAR EQUIVALENT LIQUIDITY REQUIREMENT (Blue side fixed)
[1] - if masternode count decreases (holders want to trade their masternode collateral for another coin and exit Dash)
a) - the gap will open and redundant (Sr) coin supply goes positive
b) - this will go to markets as excess supply and move the price down
c) - masternode revenue goes UP (due to fewer masternodes), masternode price goes DOWN (due to b)
d) - the effect of c is to attract demand from BOTH the currency sector of the existing investor community (the blue band) AND from markets
e) - the redundant supply gap (Sr) is closed, the masternode count stabilises and full coin deployment is restored
[2] - if masternode count increases (demand rises from the fixed income commercial market sector)
a) - the redundant coin supply term (Sr) goes negative
b) - a negative Sr term due to masternode shortfall can only be cleared by moving coins from the blue to the orange sector which can happen in two ways: an existing holder re-deploys their holdings as masternode collateral OR a new holder does by way of the coins passing through markets first and changing hands
c) - the price rises to maintain the liquidity requirement for the currency market (blue zone)
d) - the negative redundant coin supply term (Sr) is eliminated and full coin deployment is restored
FOR A GIVEN MASTERNODE COUNT (Orange side fixed)
[3] - if the size of the currency market decreases
a) - the gap will open and redundant (Sr) coin supply goes positive
b) - price will fall to close the gap
c) - the redundant supply gap (Sr) is closed, the masternode count stabilises and full coin deployment is restored
[4] - if the size of the currency market increases
a) - the redundant coin supply term (Sr) goes negative since there is a liquidity shortfall
b) - by definition, demand has exceeded supply on markets so price rises to meet the liquidity requirement for the currency market (blue zone)
d) - the negative redundant coin supply term (Sr) is eliminated and full coin deployment is restored
Bitcoin's chart since July 13 looks remarkably similar (according to
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/)...stable, sharp rise to ATH, decline to trough, rise to maybe 2/3 ATH, long decline, stable, smallish rise to about 1/2 ATH, slight decline.
The Dash trough after ATH is longer and deeper, but otherwise it looks similar.
