I am not sure if I agree because it still seems to be in your head that the BTC price is going to go up no matter what, which is not true.  We cannot really know the future until it arrives, and even if a future that had a 10% chance of happening ends up happening then that one becomes 100%, even though there were a variety of alternative futures that had better chances at an earlier date.

We should be able to hold simultaneous ideas in our head at the same time.. and for example if we describe what we expect to be the future until January and then we also have another future that we are describing until April 2024 and then another that we are describing until October 2024, and then some variation ends up happening in that the future that we expected in January 2024 does not end up happening, but instead one of our 10% scenarios ended up happening, it would thereafter be foolish for us to keep our ideas of what will happen in April 2024 and what will happen in October 2024 as the same, we have to adjust our opinion based on the real status in January 2024 rather than what we thought that it was going to be because a less probable set of events ended up playing out that affects the likelihood of all future events thereafter.


We can still stick with our main ideas, even if some things might not end up playing out how we expected, but we might have to make some adjustments - and I doubt that any adjustment should be attempting to not deal with facts in front of us.. and also sometimes we might be having our own doubts based on our not having enough information to fill the gaps in terms of making sure that we need to stick with our investment thesis.

I think that part of the reason that we can sometimes stick with our original thesis is because we do not overly invest into bitcoin or anything else in order that we are either scared out of our investment or that we cannot tolerate bitcoin going to zero, or some other scenario that might not mean that it goes to zero but it fails to go up or that it actually goes down for way longer than we had expected.


Sure, we can attempt to be ongoingly aggressive in our investment into bitcoin, but we still may well need to live with various scenarios in which the BTC price might not be performing even close to what we had expected, and there might not even be any new facts or logic to cause us to change our perspective or lose conviction in the strength of bitcoin as an investment, but still there could be times when the market moves against us for way longer than seems rational (or even possible).


You may well be doing all of the right things, but then if you start to proclaim that it is certain that a certain outcome is going to happen, then you are likely going to get some pushback, even if you end up being correct, and even if others might largely agree with you, they might not agree with you that the outcome that you are describing is certain... even if bitcoin is likely to be amongst the best of investments currently available to a broad section of people, and it might even be the best investment, but being the best does not even make it certain.


Probably it might seem that I am quibbling about language.. which surely might be true, yet it still seems that the long time frame does not cause BTC's price rise to become guaranteed, even though it seems that if the fundamentals are remaining strong then the odds become more and more certain, without ever becoming guaranteed... even if we look at a longer timeline.... the long time frame gets us through volatility.. but does not resolve the overall question and the concern of not investing more than you can lose in the case that bitcoin prices might not end up going up.

but yeah, each of us can look at past charts and see bitcoin's short-term volatility to be all over the place and we can see that historically BTC's price trajectory continues to go upwards with the passage of time, but the mere fact that bitcoin's chart has continued to go up with the passage of time does not make it guaranteed to go up into the future... even with abilities to ride out seemingly inevitably ongoing up and down battles that are likely going to continue in the coming 4-10 and even probably more than 20 years into the future, even though sure it is possible to resolve some of the bitcoin matters more quickly, but I am not going to assume bitcoin's volatility to resolve itself with the mere passage of time and I am not going to expect that BTC's price is guaranteed to go upward, even though DCA is based on a presumption that BTC prices continue to go up.. so DCA is a great strategy for bitcoin since bitcoin has strong upward price tendencies that are likely to continue.. but still not guaranteed to continue.


I am not going to argue about any of that... and I suppose my main quibble is about any proclamations that the BTC price is guaranteed or even close to guaranteed to go up... even though it is probably one of the best investments currently in existence, especially on a widespread basis, but there are still a lot of ways to screw it up, and DCA and other balancing matters can at least lessen the chances of screwing up in regards to NOT investing more than you can afford to lose in the event that bitcoin did not either go up or even that it might end up going down or sideways.

I think it's too early to say or even conclude that Bitcoin will always increase, on the other hand it is a pretty good perspective in terms of more convincing ourselves of the accumulation of bitcoin that we are living, but on the other hand it will not always be like that, this is a market that in general will not always be in accordance with what we always expect and of course none other than that because of the risk opportunities that can suddenly befall us without warning. So of course I agree with you that the future cannot always be predicted accurately, and maybe we can only speculate a little with some potential indications of what will happen in the next few years to Bitcoin.

We will only be able to know for sure when it actually happens to confirm whether our previous predictions were right or wrong. If indeed the future, especially about Bitcoin, can be predicted with 100% accuracy then I think some risk management will not be useful, because they already know that that way they will definitely get profit. On the other hand, basically yes, we can only hope for the best along with several other actions as supporters of Bitcoin accumulation such as the knowledge and knowledge we have and also do not forget to always be firm on planning and risk management to minimize things (losses) that are not desired.

You could interpret my post in the direction of selling BTC, which in fact I don't assume that's the case. Yes, at this stage, perhaps my opinion is that the investment we make will of course have a target of achieving success in long-term planning. Especially in the long term, of course we have the desire to be able to generate a greater ROI and the $100k benchmark is mostly targeted by them, even though they won't selling later. But the achievements they have made are certainly a benchmark for success in holding in the long term.

In holding in the long term there are certainly many difficult trials that we have to face and I think you have felt it when the dump and went up drastically but you were able to hold on to your BTC holdings. Of course that is a big achievement that you have had in planning in the long term. That's the point I might have assumed in the previous post.

holding bitcoin must be wise, that is the most important thing... everyone who buys bitcoin with the aim of long-term HODL, must have good financial planning to avoid failure to do "HODL" in the future, you or your relatives will definitely one day experience sadness or suffering from illness and how do you cover all that when you don't have emergency money or savings, bitcoin is a very volatile asset and its price is predicted to exceed $100k, so i am very confident about the future of bitcoin, some people suggest diversifying investment assets that i own but i am only more confident about Bitcoin, the others are not convincing at all.

You know, some (not all) of those people who have negative view about Bitcoin are obviously the cause of their predicament in the sense that they got greedy and was deceived because of promise of huge APY that most of those altcoin project have promise them, some people too became greedy in the sense that, after they buy thousands or millions of coin at a cheap price, the coin will pump and they will be seeing a good profit bit they will not sell because they want it to go further, they forget to realize that altcoins in not Bitcoin, Bitcoin always have the bull and bears season that repeatedly happens but altcoins pump and dump is just something that can happen once or randomly and if the investors is not lucky to sell on the first pump, then that will be a total loss for them because the token might not pump again

After some of these people have fallen victim, they will begin to influence others negatively about Bitcoin, meanwhile they were fooled by altcoins.

Anyone who owns bitcoin may well have difficulties not watching the price, even if s/he is not trading.  Of course, if s/he is DCAing then there may be less reason to look at the price, but if s/he is buying on the dip, then there might be some desires to try to figure out how much of a dip is enough of a dip. .which surely can lead to more attempts to watch the price and some times might even contribute to more emotionalism than would be preferable in the investment.. so yeah sometimes some of these people might end up wanting to trade rather than to consistently accumulate, so there can sometimes be some confusion and even seemingly contradictory/emotional behaviors that might not get better with trying to figure out which way the BTC price might go and maybe lacking some confidence in what kind of plan the person has in terms of BTC accumulation.

I doubt that off the cuff, I have any special insight into the topic, except that there are all kinds of people, and frequently they have various kinds of busy lives in terms of how they spend their time, but if they get involved into a new topic they are going to be bringing some of their already existing habits, but at the same time, if you are introducing a new topic to someone they will likely end up needing to make some time and space for the topic, and surely once they start to get invested, then they are likely to become more curious about the topic.

There is already a lot of corrupted thinking that comes from the various corrupting influences of fiat and the various ways that people are manipulated in fiat systems, and so there are so many people who might not even know how to save money or to have investing strategies, so if they are introduced into some kind of investing and/or savings then they are likely going to have some natural (I am not completely sure if it is natural but kind of bred into our values) to want to gamble and trade, so they may well not even know the difference between trading and investing, even if they may well be smart people but they might not have learned about personal financial management.. and so even though personal financial management does not necessarily require any special skills, many people do not exercise good cash management, even though they likely understand a lot of the basics regarding how much they might want to pay for things and if they have enough money after they have figured out how much they can make and if they get training then they might get promoted to be able to make more money to be able to have discretionary income.

So if someone has some extra income (discretionary income) then the person can use that discretionary income to save and invest, but they might not know how to save and invest so they merely think about what they can buy now, so many folks have troubles with delayed gratification and they are very tempted if they can figure out a way that something might earn money quickly, then it makes more sense to them, rather than having a longer term plan because the longer term remains uncertain and even when they put their money into longer term plans there can be a lot of doubts about if that asset is going to be a good place to store value and if it is going to increase in value.

If you hardly have ever saved in your life and maybe you have ONLY saved up to maybe 1/4 of your annual income, you might not know what to do when you are able to save greater amounts.  Remember, even investing or saving 10% per year for 10 years is ONLY going to get you around 1 year of your salary, so it would take around 2.5 years to get up to 25%, and are people even able to keep investing and/or saving after they get 25% of their income?  They get tempted into taping into it for some short term pleasures, and so sure not everyone is unable to control their shorter term temptations to tap into their savings/investments, but it is something that we likely have to practice to get better at it and to put our value in various places in order that maybe we might be able to draw from some of it from time to time, but trying to keep focused on building it.. surely not easy, even though many folks should be able to learn those kinds of self-discipline kinds of skills to also create longer term plans and maybe not over investing in order that they can do both.. they can both invest for the long term and also treat themselves with some pleasures, but just DON'T be dipping into their savings/investments because dipping into them tends to undermine them and takes away from their compounding effects.. and probably especially bitcoin (even though some similar practices can be put into place for other investments/savings too).   

One has no right to see another's wallet. So of course those who are here are definitely holding a small amount of bitcoins for the future. But those who have sources of income but are not able to deposit their bitcoins can deposit bitcoins by adopting DCA strategy. Investing in DCA method on a monthly weekly basis at any price of Bitcoin will make Bitcoins very profitable on average. The duration of the Bitcoin deposit wallet should be long-term, then investing in the Bitcoin DCA method can definitely accumulate a large portfolio.

While you make a plan to hold and be able to get more bitcoins for yourself, many obstacles will come along the way to make sure that your target is missed. As you plan, make room for flexibility when necessary, so if your plans go sideways, or is being wrecked by challenges, you will only be bothered by change in plans, not a change in goals that you have set for your investment. Changing the plan happens, but changing the goal of investment should not happen except it is to set a higher goal. 

Therefore, so that our plans are not disrupted by something that may come in the future, we must implement the plan along with the risks. I mean we have to think about the worst things in our plan, so that when we are doing the plan we made at the beginning and then there are difficulties that come, we are ready with it and we don't need to think of another plan because we have prepared a solution at the beginning. That's also what I'm doing, for example now I'm doing DCA and now my financial situation is fine for then just continue to do this strategy. But I prepare like fiat money savings for something bad to happen to me later (hopefully not) so I don't have to plan to sell assets because I have money in reserve.