<<  >> (p.2)
    Author Topic: What is a math model worth that predicts BTC's next ATH with incredible accuracy  (Read 564 times)
    odolvlobo
    Legendary
    *
    Offline Offline

    Activity: 4746
    Merit: 3646



    View Profile
    February 07, 2021, 06:44:20 PM
    Merited by DdmrDdmr (1)
     #21

    Discovered it last year, its not a model that you constantly move the parameters, but all the math's stays the same but for one sequential variable which changes because of the halving. ...

    Generating models and testing them against the data until you find one that fits is called "p-hacking". It doesn't matter how many variables there are and whether they are tuned or not. How many models did you try before you "discovered" this one? If the answer is more than 1, then that is p-hacking and you can't use the same data to validate your model.

    The issue is that if you derive the hypothesis for the model from the data, then you cannot use the data to prove the hypothesis. It is called "begging the question", which is a kind of circular reasoning. It doesn't mean that your model is wrong. I means that you have absolutely no evidence that it is correct.

    Join an anti-signature campaign: Click ignore on the members of signature campaigns.
    PGP Fingerprint: 6B6BC26599EC24EF7E29A405EAF050539D0B2925 Signing address: 13GAVJo8YaAuenj6keiEykwxWUZ7jMoSLt
Page 1
Viewing Page: 2