Who doesn't want to see bitcoin going up further? All of us do but that's where the greed starts and based on experiences, we know that when it's already at its peak, we should start taking our profits and avoid being picky and greedy because we're aware that the dump is about to start soon. And we're all right with that because after bitcoin hit the last ATH, it has basically started to dump.

I believe that in addition to the normal panic that many retail investors feel in situations like this, there is the disillusionment that the many bullish price predictions for the past year have failed, and by far. Remember S2F, the supercycle theory etc. So, if we are in a general market downturn and we add that, it is easy to understand a massive sell-off by retail investors, who tend to do the opposite of what should be done.

The reflection of the OP is quite good, what happens is that it will have little influence on these retail investors, who are driven by emotions rather than by reason.

During the rise from 30k to all time high, I did assume the market to to drop back to 34k and test the support levels because it was crossed in a short period of time and I was in the belief that the support level had not developed much there. However a few months and the price continued above 50k and I assumed that I might have been wrong and support levels did become strong there.

I was eventually shown that my first assumption was correct, just that it was never tested till this month when prices dropped and the 35k support level was tested. I still consider the 30k mark to be the safer buying option or even lower if we see that. This is not the time to sell, do that again when bitcoin crosses beyond 50k.

Right now, just wait for lower prices to buy in.

I love this your write up, you took your time to come up with it. What I have learnt from this write up majorly is that we are having a global 'bad market' it not just about crypto but also stock markets. Every other aspects is for newbies who are yet to experience bitcoin in cycle of four years, because if they have believe me they will not be panicking and talk more of panic selling. I think life is about learning and growing, certainly they will learn from this one and perhaps do better in the future when the market goes bearish.

According to the logarithmic regression band that some traders use to calculate future highs and lows the average price of Bitcoin right now is ~32k USD The lows of the band are at 19k.
Historically the lows of this band were always the lowest point to which Bitcoin was falling in a prolonged bear market and it often returned to and above the middle range.

I remember reading a thread some time last year where people were asking if Bitcoin will ever fall below 50k. Funny how in a bull market people tend to be unreasonable in one way and in bear the other.


Thanks. Good luck with your investments.


Selling in a downtrend isn't that bad as long as you do it early on. Unfortunately people tend to hold it off and every subsequent drop is like torture to them. When you put money on the line you need a plan. People should ask themselves if they can afford -50%. If not, they should set a stop loss or exit the market with a small profit in a bull market and be done with it. Worst thing you can do is invest money you can't live without, see it drop 50%, accept defeat and sell and then feel like shit for years.

Finally, the price is back to $37k and the sign to rise is there so hopefully, the price will be back to $38k. Yes, the price can bounce back, although the price is not moving fast to the high price but we should gladly see this moment because we can profit from the coins. Bitcoin seems to have the power to lift the price to hope that it will be a good week for us. They should not worry about the fluctuations because they are part of the crypto price movements and we should try to benefit from that.

Yes and also saw it hit $38k. You don't think it's fast but I think that it was, the price have moved fast but as usual, there will be some pauses that has to happen.
Like what happened after it has hit $38k, I thought that it will going to continue moving up to $39k but there's a delay somehow. But just as the usual thing for bitcoin, we don't know what's next for it and maybe a rapid move from $37k to $39k and $40k.

even the current price has reached the price of $33k and that's lower than the price you said. If the price continues to fall and the price may enter the $20k area. the market is bearish. the possibility of a rebound to the $40k area remains but certainly not that fast. Bitcoin was also faced with the FED's decision to raise interest rates.

Actually, no one is able to exactly predict the market and it is behaving opposite of expectations. The best thing we can do is to stay of this market for some time and let the market decide where it wants to go. Last two days, bitcoin moved from 33k to 39K but today again we are back to 35K. Unless, we see the clear direction of the market, it is better to hold our investment and do not take wrong decisions.

If you have money (USDT), you can buy some good altcoins in spot only. Do not do future trading in current market situations.