greedy people are irrational. but if your willing to buy high sell low. you will lose and there is only so many times you can lose before your out of the game and not participating in the pump.. there are only so many idiot traders. and once they are out they are out.

then the pumps end and corrections begin. where only the smart traders are left

the NFT market is fake.. a huge majority of NFT are not true trades..
they are the creator selling to himself for a high price to fake high price to try to set precedent of expectation. so that when true buyers come along the true buy is suppose to also pay high/higher..
but remember if you create art. and put it into auction. and then you, wearing a different hat buy your own art.. that money as a buyer, returns to you. so it cost you nothing.. yet you manage to set a fake price..
so when a true buyer comes along to buy the art from you(wearing the hat) you are not losing anything from selling at a lower price that your fake trade before
but its this lower price that is actually the price discovery phase.. not the fake ones the creators are trying to promote

and thats the phase NFT are in . creators losing nothing because they are only selling to themselves...
then their next trade that appears to be a loss is the actual first true transaction of profit

its the 3rd transaction.. the duped buyer trying to sell.. that would be the true first losers.

this game used to happen alot in ebay when a new collectable british legal tender metal 50p piece was released. collectors buying them from the mint at 50p:50p would go to ebay and then sell it to themselves for £20(40x) to try to set precedent that these collectible 50p coins were actually worth 40x.. no one fell for that either.. apart from a couple idiots. so the trader again sells to himself for £10(20x) and then £5(10x) trying to fake price discovery until he can convince a true buyer of a price point they are willing to buy


those shouting "it will got to $20k, it will overtake BTC" are not wanna be buyers .. they are people already bought into ETH and wanting to pump it so they can exit at profit.. yes everyone wants a 5x but not willing to wait years for actual value(in deflationary currencies)..
so those buying in at $3.5k of a non deflationary. are just greedy and wanting quick pumps and dumps to exit ASAP, so they will shout out numbers like $20k. because thats their exit price the price they want other people to pump it to so the screamer can exit

yep.. in bitcoin those shouting $100k, $250k. are not shouting out the prices they are willing to buy in at.. they are shouting the Xx factor amount they personally want to exit at where they want to try to push others to buy in excessively too.. but as we seen.. it never reached $100k+ because yep there are real underlying cost windows involved that topped out at $70k last year


but again. if you look at the total users as a whole. there is a limit to any market where the overall top limit reaches a peak that even the dumbest yet-to-be buyer just gives up and says 'no, thats too high'
meaning the pumper loses..


wrong
even the dumbest yet to be buyer has his limits. and there are not an infinite amount of dumb buyers.. so there is always a market top. where dumb users dilute out until there are none left

there is always a point where the speculative bubble bursts

yes when something is new and misunderstood this bubble can be as much as 100x. but once those dumb people and pumpers lose, they dont play so risky next cycle/time.

you can see how that played out in bitcoin
first pump was .$0.30-$30 (100x) but that then corrected down to reasonable closer to value of $2.50
(that period was trigger of first GPU mining where people screamed 'costs and difficulty going to 100x') which sparked the speculative price jump in days. the actual difficulty didnt jump 100x in days so ofcourse the bubble diddt last that month..
it took another 12+ months for the actual cost/diff to jump to the 100x
which is why $30 did hit again until 2013

next cycle seen a jump of far less than 100x.
and latest one was less than 10x

it takes time to weed out the weak treaders that emotional trade. where only logical traders are left and then new traders follow the logical path as they learn from their peers bad experiences
.....
because as you say eth has no supply limit. it will take time for traders to realise the new cost change and then get hurt by speculative bubble pumps.. until they get into rational/logical  value:price trading range

but long story short.. dont expect ethereum to remain in the bubble speculative price range its in now of 20x+. it will shrink over time
...
i have to admit before the merge.. i personally thought traders were smarter and prepared before the merge for the impending cost reduction.. but it seems they will learn the hard slow way, and i didnt realise how many greedy idiots there were in ethereum.. oh well their loss. they will learn.. the signs and data and indicators were there..
they will an d have learned the hard way

Exactly. It has always been about the price. People invest into Bitcoin with the hopes of turning a profit in the least time possible. The moment prices start going down like crazy, it's the moment people start panicking like there's no tomorrow. Only a small number of people care about Bitcoin's usability. That's usually geeks, libertarians, and cypherpunks. They will use Bitcoin regardless of how much it's worth in Fiat terms simply because it represents freedom. 1 Bitcoin = 1 Bitcoin, right?

I'd wish people would stop focusing on Bitcoin's price, so that the cryptocurrency could achieve its full potential. It's a distant dream that's unlikely to become a reality because greed goes above all else. At least we know Bitcoin won't be going anywhere. As long as it stays true to its decentralized roots, there should be nothing to worry about. Just my thoughts

I think so some extent that’s right but there does feel like to be a bit of separation finally starting to happen between bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, mainly those that are large and completely different in nature such as ethereum and coins or tokens that in large part have to do with staking such as Hex.

Hopefully bitcoin will start moving away from so closely following the stock market.

Because of the various uses of bitcoin, the price is also considered important. especially if it is used as an investment. Of course everyone who invests is to profit from rising prices. and what makes the price considered important is because the price can also be a benchmark in the adoption of bitcoin itself. more and more adoption especially in large numbers which indicates that people have become more and more confident in bitcoin. like the incident a few days ago when the price of gold decreased and it turned out that at the same time the price of bitcoin had increased. from there we know that the inflow of funds to invest in bitcoin has increased on the other hand many have come out of gold investments. or many sell gold and the funds are spent on bitcoins. and many more things that we can get either information or profit from a price movement. so price is always important. please correct me if i'm wrong.

Unfortunately, but that's what's going on these days, every market participant invests in bitcoin for profit, no one uses it as a means of payment or currency. I have to tell you that there are very, very few people entering the market just to use bitcoin as a currency.
So you can see that we always talk about bitcoin price, even hope bitcoin will become more popular or more widely accepted also hope that demand is greater than supply, that will help bitcoin price will be high than.


I think it's just a coincidence, people who have invested in gold mean they like safety so bitcoin is not their choice.

why stop there, if bitcoin was $200,000 then it would be moving by $25,000 per HOUR does that seem reasonable to you (oops mistake, $10,000 per hour but still that's pretty alot)? i would expect a decreasing volatility with higher bitcoin prices. but maybe i'm wrong but how could bitcoin survive like that? peoples' networths would be changing fast some getting wiped out by 100 grand in hours sometimes...


but as the price rises, the volatility in general should be going down. thus making bitcoin less attractive to a speculator or someone just looking to day trade it. not saying that's bad. just the way it should work out. so in reality, people should be happy bitcoin is way off of its ATH if they are day trading it. right?

Actually you right from the aspect of the objective of Satoshi is to create decentralized financial ecosystem, i the objective of Satoshi is still dwelling in cryptocurrency sphere, because assuming Bitcoin was a centralized currency it would have been destroyed by now, but since the attention and objectives Concentrate on decentralized, that while it haven't be destroyed. It's quite obvious that Bitcoin is father's of any other cryptocurrency.

$250,000 or $500,000 or even $1,000,000 would need to be helped along by uncle sam printing more us dollars which are backed by nothing. but bitcoin itself is not magically going to somehow become worth 10, 20 or 50 times more than it is now as far as its value proposition. so if bitcoin ever did hit $1,000,000 that probably isn't good news for Americans who use us dollars to buy things. 

maybe not but my theory is that this is what explains bitcoin price from early 2020 up until the present time.

march 2020 bitcoin is around $7500.

First round of economic stimulus checks: April 2020

The CAREs Act included a provision for a round of stimulus payments – eligible tax-paying adults received a check of up to $1,200 while eligible dependents under 16 years of age received $500 each (a maximum of three dependents could be claimed for).


may 2020 bitcoin is selling around $8800. people are using some of their free money printed out of thin air to buy bitcoin. causing price to go up. bitcoin then started a steady rise in price as people began receiving and spending their free money to buy bitcoin over the next 6 to 7 months. not everyone got their free money immediately for some people it took longer maybe a month or two or three. so that by november of 2020 btc price was in the $17,000 range nearing an all time high. but the reason for this ATH was different from the one that happened in dec 2017.

Second round of direct payments: December 2020-January 2021

The second round of aid, a $900 billion package which was part of the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act of 2021 was signed off by Trump on 27 December 2020. It provided a one-off check of up to $600, but this time, households were also able to claim an additional $600 for child dependents aged 16 or under.



Third round of stimulus checks: March 2021

Barely a week after the second round of stimulus payments were completed, new president Joe Biden entered office and immediately unveiled his American Rescue Plan, which proposed a third of round of payments to Americans, including some of those who might have missed out on the first two rounds.

On Thursday 11 March, Biden signed his $1.9tn American Rescue Plan into law. The third payment provided eligible individual taxpayers for a check of up to $1,400,

by april of 2021, just 3 months after the 2nd/3rd round of payments was announced and started being sent out, bitcoin had skyrocketed to an ATH of around $65,000 thanks to all this free money being printed and handed out to people. some of them were clearly using that to buy bitcoin. bitcoin was not becoming more valuable through this process, it was just being purchased with us dollars that were becoming more and more worthless...


not only were these programs responsible for btc price rising significantly above the ATH of 2017 but other programs that printed money out of thin air were too such as PPP Loans that didn't have to be repaid and Pandemic Unemployment Assistance by the federal government of $600 per week on top of State benefits. Not everyone was using their free money to buy extra toilet paper some of them found out about Bittrex and Coinbase 

The gravy train couldn't go on forever. The federal government wisened up and put an end to all of these programs. bitcoin could not sustain those price levels once the free money gravy train dried up. demand for bitcoin shrunk, it went back down to where it belonged.

looking for reasons of speculative market is not what i do. i look at the base value stuff that supports things that stop a market plunging into darkness
and looking at the economics of stuff that create the top premium resistance that forms the tipping point of an ATH

all the random reasoning of sentiment and speculation in between of the speculative market .. just becomes social dramas of guessing games

but lets delve into the theory of the ATH speculative reasoning of your stimulus theory
did you check the reasons for the 2011 ATH
did you check the reasons for the 2013 ATH
did you check the reasons for the 2017 ATH
those were not caused by stimulus cheques

yes you could see an uptick in volume on a couple months(ish) of a couple stimulus dates

but that volume is in no where comparison to the 2017-18 volumes

by this i mean lets say all 250m adult americans did put some stimulus cheques into bitcoin
they are only putting in a fraction of the $1.2k

250m * lets say $500 =$125b per round
3 rounds in a year =$375b a year volume

exchanges do far more volume over all, than what i calculated as a $375b per year 'stimulus volume'
where even that $375b per year stimulus volume was an exaggeration of all adult americans investing 42% of their cheques

here is the funny
the price in march2020 did peak to $8k. but it also dropped days later(mid march) to under $6k
and yet that march period(pre-stimulus) was the highest volume of trading occurring in 2020-2021
which you cant explain as a stimulus cheque caused high volume event..

the first stimulus of april-may 2020 had no price impact
(yes it had mid-high volume compared to lets say the 2021 volume)

then the december-jan(high volume) stimulus
and march 2021 stimulus was the first peak of a ATH (stimulus 2&3)
but the july 2021-november 2021 was the peak of a ATH with no stimulus period inside those dates

where by first stimulus round didnt see much uptick in volume or price
yes second and third round coincided with the first price ramp up.
but doesnt explain the second ramp up in price from july onwards

which seem too flimsy of a correlation to try to theorise causation
however here is a better theory, which has a test of time proof of over 12 years

so here it is:
with each major price discovery event follows a year later by a ATH
price discover events     year later
2010-first exchange   :  ATH 2011
2012-halving event   :  ATH 2013
2016-halving event   :  ATH 2017
2020-halving event   :  ATH 2021