all the random reasoning of sentiment and speculation in between of the speculative market .. just becomes social dramas of guessing games
inflation is not a guessing game. you see it in everyday prices of items. anything that causes inflation of the us dollar is going to result in bitcoin having a higher us dollar price. that doesn't mean bitcoin all the sudden became more valuable though. what it means in this particular case is the us dollar became more worthless so in order to maintain its current value, bitcoin us dollar price has to go up.
the funny thing about inflation is.. dollar has always been in an inflation
ever since 2002-2007-2012 you can check the price of most goods of 10-15-20 years compared to now and the average change in price is actually been quite the same. its just a few ear-marked baskets of goods used by CPI were held down to fake a lower rate while real prices of everything else have gone up
i remember 20 years ago the price of UK fuel was 70p/litre now its over £1.40
this means 100% extra in the price of 2002. 100%/20=5%
yes inflation happens but that does not mean that becasue news company finally admits the government finally updated its rates to show a different rate this year .. does not mean this year causes real term need to buy more bitcoin. people have already been hedging fiat for years.
you wanting the price to suddenly jump now this week due to something you read on the news about inflation.. is different to the real shopping habits people see as price changes over the last few years
so here it is:
with each major price discovery event follows a year later by a ATH
price discover events year later
2010-first exchange : ATH 2011
2012-halving event : ATH 2013
2016-halving event : ATH 2017
2020-halving event : ATH 2021
I expect that trend to be broken in the 2024 halving for sure.
the 2011 ATH set the first spike a year after new price discovery event(first exchange)
the 2013 came earlier by a couple months than the prediction of the 2011 would cause
the 2016 came later
the 2020 came with 2 peaks to try emulating the mix of the peaks of the previous cycles
so here is the peaks mapped out in cycles
2010-2012 2012-2016 2016-2020 2020-2022in short we are correctly in the 'low zone' of each cycle
i would say in the 2025 ATH attempt there will be one,2,3 peaks in the same area as those peaks and then ~2 years of lows on a slow growth
...
and here is the price range to expect the markets to work within depending on the value:premium zone based on mining hashrate of this gens hardware and costs
in short if 2023 hashrate is about 250exa, the price would wiggle SOMEWHERE between $15k-$100k
in short if 2023 hashrate is about 330exa, the price would wiggle SOMEWHERE between $20k-$130k
in short if 2023 hashrate is about 500exa, the price would wiggle SOMEWHERE between $31k-$200k
