^^That "sudden change" is the thing that looks the most realistic to me. I get that not many people feels the same way but I feel like if we could end up seeing it change like that, then we could go up way too high without any trouble. People do not see how easy it could be to reach 24k+ prices again, yes it's not happening right now, but if we were to try to go up, it would be super simple and that's the point.

This is why I am not scared as a bitcoin holder, I trust that we are going to have that easily and it is going to end up with a success for sure. I know that it is going to be taking a while, but it is going to get back there for sure without a doubt.

After some antipcated resistance from the 200 MA at $21.6K, as well as short-term volume point of control, price has since closed above these levels on the 4hr after consolidation highlighting the strength of buying pressure. Despite the 4hr reaching oversold levels close to 80 on the RSI, the bulls remain fully in control on this time-frame. The short-term question is whether the $21.5K level of old resistance can become new support, or whether price will correct further in order for the RSI to cool off. Needless to say, betting against such a strong uptrend at present is only asking for further short liquidations.




With price now clearing the bearish trending 200 MA on the 4hr with ease, moving above the 50 Day MA around $22K that has since lost it's bearish bias as it moves sideways can't be ruled out, I'm therefore not anticipating this level to act as resistance, despite the need for a short-term correction in order for the 4hr to return to bullish territory from oversold, which could instead come from sideways consolidation. I had previously considered a re-test of $20K support after the strong move to the upside, but after today's consolidation it seems the bulls have other ideas, even if this level remains possible.




With only 24 hours to go until the Weekly close, a strong bullish candle looks increasingly likely, possibly around $21.5K rather than simply $20K given the current short-term price strength. While this won't rule out a correction next towards $20K, it will help to further confirm a macro higher low on the weekly time-frame that remains crucial for further confirmation of the $17.5K low being in.

The similarity with the 2019 bottom is becoming increasingly clear; that of a bear trap higher low 2 months after the initial low, followed by reclaiming the 50 Day MA and grinding higher. Key dates next week will be the 15th when MtGox finalises coin distribution as well as Ethereum merge date, followed by the 18th - whereby it will be officially be 3 months since the $17.5K (enough time for a bottom to form).

On the 4hr, price has now confirmed $21.5K volume point of control into new support after moving above the 200 MA. This makes a drop back down to the support level of $20K less likely in the immediate term, unless this new support is broken. The RSI has otherwise remained overbought for 3 days since the move to $20.6K, further highlighting the strong buying pressure right now. Immediate targets for the current upswing would be around $23K to $24K where there was some distribution from sellers, otherwise further confirming the new support for the RSI to cool off remains quite likely.




Today price is attempting to move out of the "neutral zone" between $20K and $22K, otherwise considered the long-term accumulation range. Additionally price is testing the relatively flat (neutral) 50 Day MA at $20.2K that will be a key level to close above on the Daily time-frame in order for bullish continuation, that additionally lines up with the RSI entering bullish territory >60. With the 200 Day MA fast declining and now priced around $30K, where previous support failed, this becomes the next likely target on this time-frame based on the current potential for the Daily chart to become bullish.




More interestingly yesterday the Weekly closed strong at $21.8K helping to confirm a double bottom higher macro low. Using the 260 Week MA as a 5 Year MA, it becomes clearer that price is finding support from it's macro long-term uptrend. The next test will be the 200 Week MA around $23.3K, while also the 20 Week MA is fast declining now at $24.8K that will need to be cleared for a full blown price reversal.



While based on price action it's still early days to be confirming this local low as a macro low (especially based on the Monthly time-frame that remains very neutral), with the Weekly RSI continuing to trend higher it's certainly looking more likely as price moves back above $22K. Based on the 2019 bottom and relevant MAs, we could still only be 60% towards forming this bottom, ie another couple of months before finally clearing the $25K hurdle, rather than an immediate reversal now that $20K has again held as support on longer time-frames, which could therefore lead to further consolidation between $21K and $24K.

Just saw your comment, thanks for your input, and yes please don't   The market remains very fragile so could easily go either way right now

I otherwise mainly do it for myself as helps to formalise my opinions, but also so I can look back at things I said or anticipated and see where I was right or wrong. It's a lot easier to be wrong than right in this market, so it's useful to identify where mistakes are made etc. A lot of it is simply trying to identify levels of support and resistance, as this is the main stepping stone for successful trading.


You did well with that short earlier in the year catching most of the capitulation, so I believe you when you say this! I was too busy looking for price to find support  


It certainly is an interesting time. Many have already considered Bitcoin dead this year because it hasn't risen in price over the wave of inflation, but really in hindsight it just seems like it was due a bear market (time wise) that coincidentally timed in with inflation. For example, if there was no recession right now, price would probably be around the same price imo, just with some differing short-term price action to get there.

If it wasn't for the recession, I'm sure others would find another excuse for why Bitcoin is dead this year. Another way to look at this is that if high inflation arrived in 2020, when price was around $10K, then Bitcoin goes to $60K, many would have attributed that to the macro economic climate, as opposed to Bitcoin's own individual monetary policy and 4-year cycles for example.

My rambling point is many want/need to attribute "reasons" for price going up or down, rather than just accept it's the natural order of markets to go up and down, rather than in straight lines.


Indeed, I try and stick with the technicals rather than any fundamentals when analysing price. I like to think that the TA should at least reflect that, as well as the reality that a lot of the macro climate is already "priced in", so trying to trade of this is a backwards strategy imo. I'll never forget the super bearish CPI numbers in July causing price to pump 20% to the upside, completely against all so-called fundamental TA.

As I've said elsewhere, people don't capitulate because the recession is at it's worst - they sell because they are anticipating the worst before it happens.

After a sharp 12% correction yesterday, price clearly failed to turn $21.5K previous resistance into support, thus falling back down to longer-term support range around $20K. With the 50 MA still rising but price below and the 200 MA continuing to decline, price remains bearish on this time-frame below both moving averages. However returning to the norm in between these two MAs around $21K would be a likely outcome.



While falling below the local support around $19.5K would again increase the chance or making new lows, price is currently holding the 0.382 fib (expected) retracement level from the recent swing low to swing high, so for now a re-test back towards $21.1K (0.618 retracement) at minimum becomes more likely in the short-term, even if it turns into a dead cat bounce before lower lows.




Despite anticipating some form of correction or consolidation, the selling became aggressive with the RSI returning not to bullish territory, but back to bearish territory. The positive outcome has been that price strength remains in it's month long uptrend, the longest seeen since the capitulation to $17.5K. The previously established bullish divergence support trend-line therefore remains in tact for now.





On the Daily chart price is back to the neutral 20 Day MA after failing to turn the 50 Day MA into support, as well as the RSI getting rejected from bullish territory, somewhat as anticipated. Arguably not a lot has changed compared to market structure a week or two ago as price remains within the accumulation zone of $20K to $22K, only that the 50 Day MA has returned to a bearish decline after failure of price holding higher levels. Therefore while the mid-term MA provides a bearish bias, the structure remains neutral within the accumulation zone, only really being rejected from leaving this zone to the upside.



TL:DR

Despite the bearish Daily candle yesterday, in reality it only managed to engulf 3 days worth of price action which isn't substantial, not even the +10% from 5 days ago. Most importantly price has found buyers again from $20K, the level which previously failed to hold as support prior to to the move to $18.5K. Without bearish follow through, it doesn't amount to that much apart from the obvious decline in price, as well as negating any immediate bullish outlook of higher price targets towards $23K to $24K, as well as successfully leaving the accumulation zone between $20K and $22K.

I question the extent of your seeming bearishness here.

Sure, you may well be right that 1-3 months of consolidation in these $18k-ish to $21.5k-ish price territories may end up playing out, yet at the same time, I see no reason that king daddy might not end up doing one or two step ups and consolidate at higher points, because it is already pretty damned bearish to have BTC prices  spending so much time below the 200-week moving average (which is currently at almost $23,800), so largely we have been quite a distance below the 200-week moving average for a decently long period of time of more than 3 months already..

And yeah there have been quite a few negative happenings in bitcoinland and even lack of confidence in respect to macro-factors and their potential additional influences to continue to push negatively on prices, as well as the fact that once the rationale for getting down to these low price points has been understood, then there has been justification in which the momentum stays down and fails/refuses to go up until sufficient satisfaction has been achieved in regards to the vast majority of weak hands being shaken out.. including the fact that miners re still being pressured in such a way to make sure that the ones who have been shaken out are all of those that are going to be shaken out.

So I am still thinking that even if BTC prices do a little bit of a step up to just below the 200-week moving average or even just above the 200-week moving average, it is still a pretty negative place for BTC prices to be, even though it is more in line with historical longer term bottoms of the 200-week moving average, even though arguments can be made in regards to our living through more challenging times than usual with some more challenging macro-factors than usual, too.

In other words, I don't really have very many clues except to just want to chime into to say that I have my doubts about whether either staying down or even correcting more down (as some of the even more bearish than you predictors are wanting to say) is any kind of necessity that is any more justified than some scenarios that might still be reasonable, still feel sufficiently bearish even with one or two steps higher up in our consolidation arena... and still be enough of negative to keep everyone happy (or not happy) and feeling impending doom for the next 1-3 months or even longer before the consolidation can work itself out and perhaps resolve to the upside at some point soon thereafter, whether that would be in the next 1-3 months or if it might even take additional 3 months or more. 

None of these consolidation areas are guaranteed, because it is quite possible that we could get some kind of a false bounce up to $35k or some other unrealistically high number (like our 2019 period) that might take a decent time to get up there, and then correct back down over the following month to bring us more or less back down to somewhere around the 200-week moving average starting point.. again not any kind of necessary condition, but something that could end up playing out that involved a bounce first before consolidating back down in a lower level (somewhere around the 200-week moving average area.. or whatever ends up being then plausible).

While price remains the same since previous update, Bitcoin continues to get rejected by local resistance as well as\ the 200 MA. Focusing simply on moving averages, price is currently stuck between the 50 & 200 MA, with the longer-term MA trending downwards in bearish formation and the 50 relatively flat and therefore neutral. The only upside is that the 50 has been temporarily flipped into support.




Similarly on the Daily chart price is facing strong MA resistance, on this time-frame from the 20 Day MA. The bearish outlook is that after a couple of weeks of consolidation the bearish momentum remains strong (20 Day MA being a momentum indicator), while the bullish outlook would be a close above around $19.6K that could help to reverse this bearish momentum, now that this MA has declined considerably.



While the Month closed "only" -3% to the downside, it none the less became the lowest close since late 2020. Furthermore, it became the first ever rejection from the 50 Month MA, signalling weakness in Bitcoin's long-term uptrend. The only real positive is that so far the June lows haven't been broken, but given yesterday's close it's looking increasingly likely unless price can soon reverse to the upside.

Price has broken below the 50 MA after repeated rejection from the 200 MA. Personally, I'd say this is because these MAs are in bearish formation, as opposed to bullish. The risk now will be turning the 50 MA into new resistance, which becomes increasingly likely with price trading below all it's moving averages, unless a higher low on this short-term time-frame can be established in the near term:





The issue for me is that despite the relatively sideways market in recent weeks, price continues to respect bearish (declining) moving averages as resistance. Again today price is getting rejected by the 20 Day MA for the third consecutive day, which generally I find not very useful as an MA unless it's accurately highlighting bearish momentum which appears to be the case. The optimism left for me would be closing back back this MA (currently at $19.4K) that continues to decline, but otherwise if price is to return to $18.8K lower level of support, this support is only going to become weaker until it eventually breaks imo.



The Weekly chart is additionally highlighting selling pressure from previous support level around $20K for the second week in a row, confirming it as new resistance. So without reclaiming this level in the near future, consolidating at the lows below resistance and moving averages remains bearish to me. At least the target for closing above the 20 Day MA has declined considerably in order to neutralise the immediate bearish momentum, but otherwise without reclaiming above around $20.5K, to me price would only be neutral at best in the short-term, and at worst awaiting further bearish correction.

Now that price has moved out of the trading range, it's time for an update. Firstly, a lot's changed since last time price was above $20.5K last month.

On the 4hr chart, the 50 & 200 MA have confirmed a golden cross, last seen in July, prior to the 20% increase in price towards $25K. Additionally, MAs are rising in bullish formation as price remains above it. While breaking through $21.5K previous trading range remains to be seen, price remains bullish in the short-term above $19.5K MA and volume support. Ideally bulls can form support between $20K and $20.5K, where the previous high lies and the upper end of the two month long accumulation zone, otherwise failure to do so and a return to $19K would only further confirm that the long-term bearish momentum remains.



On the Daily chart, price has managed to close consecutive candles above the flattened (neutral) 50 MA, again for the first time since July. This price level as potential support is similar to the short-term chart, as the 20 & 50 MAs are about to cross bullish. RSI price strength is otherwise at the highest level since March and remains bullish above 60. So while the trend reversal is far from confirmed on this time-frame without confirming support or moving beyond longer term accumulation levels (>$22K), to say that this time is different compared to recent dead cat bounces would be correct based on price strength and MAs.



The only potentially bearish outlook remains on the Weekly chart, as price begins to find resistance at the 20 Week MA @ $20,750 (again not seen since March), whereby price will need to close consecutive candles back above this level or risk facing rejection and finally capitulating lower. Due to the numerous weeks of consolidation, the projection for this MA is to flatten out and lose it's bearish bias in the next few weeks, providing a stronger possibility of being able to turn this into support instead of facing a sharp rejection like back in March after it had already begun trending to the downside in bearish formation.



After four months of consolidation near the lows, the Weekly RSI has finally managed to break back above 37.5, level previous identified as critical back in 2018 and 2020 in order to confirm a trend reversal. With price strength now flirting with the neutral level of 40, this would further help to confirm the long-term bearish momentum has passed, coinciding nicely with moving back above the 20 Week MA no doubt.



TL:DR

4hr bullish above it's MAs that are in bullish formation. Support is currently around $19.5K, however the momentum currently favours the bulls.
Daily is neutral with bullish potential, needs to confirm 50 Day MA as support ($19.7K) or otherwise accumulation zone around $20.2K.
Weekly is neutral with bearish potential, needs to avoid confirming 20 Week MA as resistance ($20.7K) in order to trend higher.