Thank you for sharing. How could one distinguish a buy-signal from a possible bull-trap? Is hash-power considered a lagging indicator? Just as quickly turned off as on (.. according to price, if it's 'profitable' to mine).

Then again, I go against that thought by saying that for some it's never unprofitable to mine in the long run, to a certain extent: it's not important at all the price in fiat paid; all that matters to the miner is more 'fresh block' sats - granted they can operate at a loss nonstop. Perhaps there's a 'failure' somewhere in this thought.

Despite maintaining $20,835 level for the Daily buy signal of this indicator, it's worth noting that today this indicator is no longer signalling a buy on the Weekly time-frame, only a hash rate recovery:



While this could become a "fake-out" as we've seen in the past, as the MA30 continues to increase it's distance with the MA60, it seems more likely the buy signal will be delayed until next week, as long as price can begin to move back to the upside. Currently average mining cost made a new low on August 19th at $16,555, which is not only benefical for the miners, but could help to explain the spike in hash rate on that day.  



For reference sake, it's quite usual for the buy signal to arrive the week or two after the hash rate recovery (green circle) has signalled, if not signalling the same week as recovery. Given that the current capitulation has lasted for 10 weeks now, it seems much more likely for a buy signal to arrive rather than a return to capitulation, as the latter is more common for shorter capitulations that have only lasted a few weeks.

Always nice to see this kind of update. Some bearish miner news this week from the conflict but don't think that affects ongoing miner operations. Wasn't so confident we'd get to that required >21k levels today after the slip up over the weekend and a brief dip below but it does look like the stage is set for the weekly buy confirmation.

Currently still holding $21K. Looking bearish short-term but otherwise in long-term accumulation zone of $20K to $22K, so personally remaining neutral (mid-term) within this trading range.


Me neither to be honest. Mainly because I do believe the bottom is likely in already, so dropping below $20K and turning the accumulation zone into distribution would be pretty bearish and indicating that lower lows are likely. Of course a double bottom is possible, around $18K or $19K depending on the time-frame, but personally not a believer in double/triple bottoms being bullish.

To me it depends how it forms. If there are lower highs and horizontal support, aka a descending triangle, it's as bearish as they come. Not based on some prophecy, but rather based on buyers having decreasing momentum to push price to upside while sellers are stepping in at increasingly lower prices. That was 2018 as well as 2019 and why double, triple, quadruple bottoms make no sense in the bullish case.


To be honest I was feeling pretty short-term bearish earlier today as price returned to re-testing $21K for the 4th/5th time, but now I'm not so sure about re-testing $20k. Maybe price barts back up to $23K after all.

One interesting thing I noticed with the RSI on the 4hr since May is there has been the pattern of after <20 deeply oversold, previously it re-tested around 20 (green arrows) in order to make a lower low (as well as swing low), after getting rejected around the neutral level of 40. Despite the sideways looking bear flag, there hasn't been this rejection on the RSI despite anticipating this to play out, because like I said re-testing support for the umpteenth time isn't a bullish sign, and instead looked ready to form the bullish divergence we've seen in previous swing lows. "This time it's different" has therefore become a relevant argument imo.



All in all, my short-term bearish outlook is already turning neutral as bears fail to push prices below $21K, while the bulls fail to reclaim $22K and the 4hr RSI returns to neutral territory.

Although still no buy signal confirmed on the Weekly and Monthly time-frames, due to lack of positive price action since the bullish crossover of the MA30 and MA60 hash rate values, hash rate remains strong and shows no signs of crossing bearish, despite the move down to $19.5K after the buy signal on the Daily time-frame at $20.8K.



Yesterday's average mining cost was estimated at $19,350, and despite price coming close to this, hash rate has maintained it's higher values this past week. Even with price briefly dropping below one of these estimates the other day, fortunately this hasn't caused miners to switch off and risk instigating another capitulation. Instead for now, the network remains strong and returning to growth.

https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29435/bitcoin-production-total-cost

Excluding "black swan" events, such as March 2020 and May 2021, the average draw-down after this buy signal is around -9% with a maximum of -15%, with price currently reaching -7% so far. It's worth noting however that this is only based on the Weekly buy signals that have to occur, but could also be applicable to signals on the Daily time-frame to some degree.