Bitcoin itself cannot do anything. Its fate is decided by whoever owns it.
Imagine that in 20 years we have a situation where almost all bitcoin is mined out, 25% of the supply is lost permanently and 10m is in the hands of large holders like nation states, blackrock, and other ETF issuers. That leaves only 5million BTC in the hands of normal holders and all the other owners will be able to just meet up the way the WEF meets. They'll decide the fate of bitcoin over dinner.
IMO the future of bitcoin is that it will be controlled. They will block transactions they don't like. It's already being discussed that coins stolen by North Korea should be tainted. Eventually they will be blocking and tainting left and right once they own a million each.
Supply alone doesn't determine control on the Bitcoin blockchain. Entities like BlackRock and Strategy might buy all of the BTC, but the final decision lies in miners' and nodes' hands. Especially nodes, which are the ones that determine network consensus.
I don't envision centralized entities controlling Bitcoin, unless they also manage to run nodes and miners of their own. If that happens, it will be the end of BTC for good. 10 years (a decade) is a long time in crypto land, so anything can happen.
Its strange. People cheer institutional money, like the very entities Bitcoin was meant to route around have become the final validators of its legitimacy. Theres comfort in that. Theres also a trap. You already see it: privacy advocates treated like malcontents, cypherpunk principles reduced to marketing copy, self-custody slowly becoming optional, then weird, then suspect.
And the protocol? Yes, open. Yes, peer reviewed. But people forget that any system, if left to inertia, trends toward convenience, not resilience. Developers are human. They want stability, recognition, sometimes safety. Governments will push for tweaks, sometimes quietly. Sometimes not. It wont be a 51% attack. Itll be a thousand small, reasonable proposals, each pragmatic, each justifiable, until you wake up and the edge is gone.
Can it be stopped? Maybe. But only if enough people get uncomfortable enough to defend the old ideas. The miners, the node runners, the devs who remember why they started. These are the antibodies, but theyre not immune. Distraction is a bigger threat than coercion.
I dont think Bitcoin dies. But I do think it risks being neutered. Decentralization isnt a checkbox. Its a struggle. Sometimes you win by holding ground, sometimes by refusing the easy road. Maybe the real decentralization isnt in the code anymore, but in the mindset. Will people even want it when comfort is on sale?
Well said. The path towards "institutionalization" of Bitcoin, is nothing more than a plan by governments and "Wall Street" to centralize Bitcoin. Developers, miners, and node operators must stand strong by resisting such entities. I sure hope developers aren't "bribed" by "Wall Street", or it will be the end of Bitcoin for good. Luckily for us, there's always a "Plan B". Thanks to Bitcoin's open source code, it's easy enough to "fork away" into a new chain. Maybe the community will fork Bitcoin and continue its legacy? One can only hope.
Most people want to make money, so they wouldn't give a damn if BTC turns centralized in the future. As long as market prices keep going up, nothing else matters. At least, good gems like Litecoin and Monero aren't "institutionalized". And I hope it stays that way forever.