at least judging by the bookmakers' odds: Bayern looks unconvincing, yet the
most likely scoreline against Union is 40

@KTC my odds from a book when I checked this morning actually give 5-1 as the most likely scoreline, now it's 4-0 or 3-0 (depending on if you're looking at handicaps or exact score).
This is new for me, How do you guys get the magic number for the most likely scoreline on bookies though? Im a dummy when it comes to this kind of things and I guess its involving complex math or something?
~
Well... youve surprised me. Just look at the "Correct Score" market, the odds there provide data you can draw conclusions from. You can glean similar information from the handicap and BTTS markets, but why rely on indirect data when direct data is available? Mind you, though, those odds aren't really suitable for cash bets.

Every single one of us predicted Bayern's high win by at least a 3-goal margin, yet all of us seemed to underestimate them.
Last season, Bayern broke their own old record of number of league goals scored in one season. They made it to an incredible 122 goals, which gives almost 3.6 goals per game. Right now, after 4 rounds, their average is 3.5.
I don't think they will do as well as last year, but I still expect them to go into triple digits by the end of the season. But predicting the exact score of their games is not going to be easy.
It seems to me that the previous game where Bayern scored zero goals was too much of an outlier to factor in right now, over the long run, its impact will wash out. So, I would suggest that the question of breaking the record is far from settled, Bayern is once again displaying incredible efficiency. Right now, Id be more inclined to wonder whether they can replicate the unbeaten season Leverkusen achieved.