I believe that the CLARITY Act still has a decent chance of moving forward. Just because of the delays it is clear that there are significant disagreements between lawmakers to work out. If granted it may be good news for the crypto sector as it could offer more clarity. Minimize uncertainty, and push more institutions into the US market. However Bitcoin is not reliant on any particular country or legislation. While the US can have an impact on adoption. Liquidity and confidence in the market. Bitcoin will remain a global phenomenon either way. The US is also looking at more crypto-friendly frameworks. And Russia and others are doing the same. Meaning it could add more competition to the US. Ultimately, the choice is one for the US to make between being at the forefront of the next wave of crypto innovation. Or letting other nations go forward.

So. Trump Jr. doesn't need to announce anything right now, so he won't. The primaries don't start for another two years. One word from Trump Sr., and Trump Jr. will be the nominee. If you don't believe that, then you don't understand a thing about US politics.

As for why Trump Sr. would do it, having his son as president would be the ultimate ego kick, but more importantly, be the safest bet for keeping him and his family out of prison. There's no way Trump would ever trust Vance, who once called Trump a threat to the country and all kinds of other terrible things.

Finally, there's another interesting game that Republicans played in the 2024 election that they'll play again this time. There are billions of dollars in donations that free up among the usual business interests when they believe that the next Republican president will be a normal one. Hence last time they tried as hard as they could to make people believe that Rick DeSantis (lol) would be the party's nominee for as long as they could. DeSantis never had a chance and it was always going to be Trump and everybody who knew how things worked knew that.


Could be. My own prediction is that unless there's a major upheaval of some kind (which is very possible), the current situation with populism and parties will bounce back and forth every election cycle because parties only know how to focus on the negative. Hence the party on the outside will always be able to convince people that things are totally terrible, and that they have to get the current party out.

If that holds, then yes, in 2028 we'll have a Democrat trifecta, and then Republicans will start winning again after that. Trump Jr. will be president in 2032 in that case.


I actually think that a few Republicans in Congress are actually afraid of being tied to Trump's corruption and will kill it. Not many, mind you, but their majority is so small that it only takes a 3-4 defections in the House and just two in the Senate.

For 2029, when the Democrats have majorities, they might pass something that has what the industry wants and also has anti-Trump (anti-corruption) stuff in it. It's true that the Democrats could go fully anti-crypto because of the backlash, but then there's the issue of the money: crypto is now the #1 lobby in the USA, surpassing that of Big Oil, Big Pharmaceutical, and all of the others. Those donors will try to buy Democrats just like they bought Republicans last cycle. If the public anti-Trump backlash isn't too strong, they might be able to do it with so much money being poured in. (But if the backlash is too strong, then forget it no matter how much money there is: just look at what's happening with AI data centers).

Regardless of whether the US Clarity Act gets passed by the Senate or not, the bigger question is I think, what real impact will it actually have on the crypto industry? The US isnt the center of the universe, but everyone acts like peace or war depends on this one act. Crypto is so much bigger than a bunch of politicians bending the world to their liking.  Seriouslly, I don't get it, maybe someone can explain the actual impact to me like I'm 10 years old... 

Tough to tell. Anyone saying that it will pass for sure or that it will never pass need to get their heads checked. It's a 50/50 tossup basically. Even if it does pass, it's most likely not happening anytime soon due to various reasons like the big vote etc.

Whatever the case, BTC doesn't really need it anyway and your opinion about democrats opposing it is dumb as hell. Think!

Republican has only 53 seats while it needs at least 60 seats to be passed.

That's the core of it. A few things I think are getting missed here:

- The Sept 15 vote isn't the vote people think it is. Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633, so it's a procedural step, not final passage.
- Even if it clears 60, you still need amendments, final passage, and then reconciliation with the House version, possibly through a conference committee. Senate breaks in early October for midterms. The calendar is brutal.
- It's not "deep state" hatred of crypto. Seven Democrats including Cortez Masto, Booker, Gallego, Warner and Warnock said the revised ethics language doesn't go far enough. Gallego has said for months he won't back it on the floor without a bipartisan ethics provision. It's leverage, two months before an election.
- Prediction markets show nobody actually knows. Above 70% earlier this year, down to 24% in July, back to 43% on the Trump ethics deal reports, then under 20% after the recess passed with nothing. That's headline trading, not information.
- Cloture on the 15th is a coin flip, full passage in 2026 unlikely. 2027 is the realistic window, once the ethics fight stops being a campaign weapon.
- BTC gains little directly. It's already a commodity under CFTC. The winners are alts, issuers and exchanges who finally get one rulebook instead of regulation by enforcement.
- Users get better disclosure and less privacy at the same time. Both, not one.
- Remember it's only a framework. After passage the SEC and CFTC spend a year or two writing the actual rules, and that's where the real fight moves.

Hope that helps.

Yes, but with or without the Clarity Act, the crypto industry is regulated in the U.S. by different bodies, such as the SEC, CFTC and FinCEN. Part of what the Clarity Act does is to clearly define the authorities of each regulatory body, as well as the boundaries of that authority.
That opinion is right, the Democrats are indeed a stumbling block so far to the passing of the Clarity Act!

Trump will be out of the White House in early 2028, only two more years with him, and there will be more next Presidents so I am positive about US Clarity Act to be passed in coming years.

I am positively thinking about that because there are precedents with Bitcoin Futures, Bitcoin Futures ETFs, Bitcoin Spot ETFs which were not approved with first times of applications but eventually we have Bitcoin Futures trading, Bitcoin Futures ETFs, and Bitcoin Spot ETFs so with the US Clarity Act, it will be very similarly.

It will be passed in the future because the US citizens, companies want that and the government will not be able to delay the pass for it too longer time.

I don't really have full comprehension of what the clarity act entails but I know that if approved by the US Senate house, it going to help and guide crypto institutions and private owners how they use their crypto without getting scared when their is not obvious law to clearly give guidelines to every crypto users. It is in the hands of the US Senate to determine if this act is going to be approved or ignored depending on the number of votes the act is going to get as support.

The need for this to pass is not because it would help Bitcoin survive, but because it would make it more used and invested; there would be a lot more people investing in it, and that is what matters. I realise that it is not really that common to have something like this, but at the end of the day it is not going to be easy either; we need to make sure that we are going to see things change. So for that reason, the best thing we can do at this moment would be making sure that we are dealing with something that is benefiting everyone.

So if the Clarity Act passes, just like the name suggests, we would have clarity when it comes to bitcoin and when we have that, there would be more people who will invest with ease of mind, and that means more money for the bitcoin world as well.

Democrats can do what they want brother but the law will eventually be passed due to its big contribution to the market, many say it will clear a lot of paths for the industry and for investors but I am still failing to see the real picture but the picture I am able to see gives me enough information that this is good stuff and it will be passed.

So far it has zero to no negative impact on the US that they will oppose it, they are creating this drama, to stretch the law this long for some other reasons don't know what that is and when I will know that the picture I am seeing will be complete.

This law will clear everything between what is security and what is commodity and after that we might see an altseason especially in alts.