It is worth noting that the market is affected by a lot of different things which is why sometimes the 4-year cycle trend doesn't look like working. For example like the past 4-5 years, basically ever since the COVID pandemic that destroyed global economy and brought recession with it. Recession prevented the cycle from completing and getting big like previous times otherwise price would have been $400k right now after having dropped from a much higher level...
Do you really think, if the pandemic had not happened, BTC's price would have touched $400k? To be honest, I don't think it could have, because due to the pandemic, many people came to the freelancing world and started hearing about BTC, and it became a choice for many people because they came to know about it, so they must have invested as well once their financial situation got better! It had good impact on the economy in the long run but maybe bitcoin's target new all time high of 2024 would have been better if there would be no pandemic or wars.
Halving doesn't technically create scarcity, and when we talk about mining and block reward we are talking about new supply being created and injected into circulation. To put simply the supply is actually rising.
To clarify: what creates "decreased supply" is not the total supply that is decreasing, it is the coins that are being sold on the market by the miners that is decreasing by 50%. That decreasing supply alongside the rising demand (adoption is growing) helps the price rise in that 4-year cycle.
P.S. Isn't the correct term "deflationary" instead of "disinflationary" for Bitcoin?
Haha yep, the correct term is deflationary. Probably English is not his first language. Anyway, you have made it extra clear what is actually happening, how halving itself could be bad if the adoption is decreasing, because in alts we fear new token supply, but in BTC we don't fear it because we have this mindset that the demand is increasing, and whatever the new supply is going to be, it will be a good thing as demand is increasing, and on the other hand, supply is reduced than before.
