I'm not quite sure why, but Fairlay has decided to incorrectly interpret Biden's swearing in as the time when he became president (11:48am).
The Constitution says: "The terms of the President and the Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January". Obviously having two presidents is impossible.
As such, they are incorrectly unsettling a small (12.1 mbtc) bet for Biden to be president that happened at 11:52am.
https://fairlay.com/archive/2021-biden-presidency/I'm not that upset because this is for a small bet, but I would rather see Fairlay follow the rules of the bet which said NOTHING about swearing in.
They also unsettled the entire market with 147,000 mbtc of volume - just so they could do this mistake.
I guess their argument is that the oath was a pivotal moment, but I'd say it wasn't. There is no clear point between 12:01am on Jan 20, and 11:59am Jan 20 where there was a sudden shift in the odds that Biden would become president. There were many gradual things that happened: Trump leaving the building, the inauguration starting, the military band not kidnapping Biden, no noticeable protests that could prevent it, Harris getting inaugurated, the snow and weather being very mild, etc.