The silver chart is busted?


How the USD compares to other currencies relates to gold and silver?

Silver isn't gold. There was a small bubble in silver (Because it came and went quick) but not gold. Silver (and gold) is being held back dramatically by price manipulators in the futures markets. I'm working on the impression that manipulators can only scare investors away and suppress the prices with naked shorts for so long; reality will eventually win. People scared away from the silver crash from last year may eventually come back in as inevitability arises.

Most people do not know about or understand the futures manipulations in silver. If they did there would be a lot more buying of physical silver.

I believe with silver dollars, an ounce of silver was equivalent to $1.29?

Looks like it was the USD that crashed, silver no.

i could just as easily say that if you invested at $49 per ounce of silver, you've suffered greatly.

Matthew; are you prepared for a generational ramp in the USD from the next deflationary wave?  everyone understands inflation.  hey, just print.  

Deflation is the more difficult argument to understand but you have to for your health.  there's even a thread over on Economics right now by a poster trying to understand its dynamic.  i suggest all of you read it. my original gold thread explains it even better.  

just look at the futures right now.  they explain it all; $DXY up, everything else down, stocks, gold, silver, oil.

It's generally the other way around - lots of bears means the time is ripe for a bull. There are plenty of sellers and few buyers, so the sellers have no more room to push prices down while the buyers have plenty of room to run up.




The options fell short - couldn't quite break even despite the Feb rally. Bad timing there on my part, but I've noted that I'm typically early anyway (usually by 1/2 to 1 full cycle). You definitely have a honed nose for shorter trading scales.

On the other hand, the mining stocks are cash-flow positive with healthy dividends. Overall NAV from acquisitions since last August is about even, gainers and losers balancing out (AEM is one). It's a different story when looking at accumulation over the past few years, which is highly positive in addition to generating cash-flow.

Keep in mind - NO ETFs, NO LEVERAGE, PHYSICAL METAL ONLY.

Therefore, time is on my side. The same applies with Bitcoin. In fact, I'm expecting a hit on gold/silver tomorrow just as Bitcoin was assaulted today. Bitcoin has been leading the metals by about a day for quite some time now, and I am growing increasingly suspicious of this behaviour.

From a little earlier:


Fixed

That's why the prices we see today are an illusion. The numbers being given today are fabrications.

Contract != Physical

Because of that, paper contract prices can collapse while physical asset prices climb. Official sources probably will only quote paper prices, so unless you're producing or have some way of accessing relevant production cost (e.g. from a mining company shareholder report or a Chinese/Singaporean exchange), you won't know the real value of an asset. That's the true power the CME/COMEX/LBMA have - illusion.

Vlad's perspective is dead-on. Death by currency collapse. The short-game makes it look like gold is doomed, but the hidden movements will cause resumption of explosive volatility in exactly the opposite direction that you're expecting - until full separation, at which point we'll both be right: official prices will fall precipitously while physical metal premiums will skyrocket.

Keep picking the corners - you're damn good at it. Just keep a tight grip on the physical... and Bitcoin


For the short-term movements, he was definitely right.

I think most PM techs are neither clowns nor cons, they're simply looking at gold as a mere tradeable security. That's as bad as being a con clown. Prechter is one of them.

For valid analysis:
http://www.jsmineset.com/
http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.com/
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/


The only generational action occurring is the USD losing its place as a global exchange medium. Both deflation and inflation take a back seat to increasing irrelevance; it's the greatest insult. Who cares what the USD does if nations stop using it? That makes it worthless no matter what - different dynamic.

Of course, as we agreed in the gold thread, our objectives are different.

its important to view pm's in the context of the economy as a whole.  which is why you see me constantly talking about other markets besides pm's in my blog and in my posts here.  pm's are affected by these other market movements.  Bitcoin is even one of those markets that i believe has significance.

when i called the bottom of the stock market correction here on Oct 6th, 2011:  https://bt.irlbtc.com/view/35956.msg560220#msg560220 i even went as far as to project a move up and beyond the May 2011 highs in the Dow.  seems so long ago. we reached it and was one of the greatest calls of my career.

when i made that call even then i knew i would be looking for a particular setup in markets once this was accomplished as now which would indicate a top.  specifically divergences among other things.  we have that setup now.  once stocks roll, and it could even start tomorrow, i think there's a good chance we go all the way down to revisit March, 2009 and perhaps lower over the next 4 yrs.

if we do, what do you think will happen to pm's and their stocks?  they will plunge below $500 i believe.  go back and review what happened to pm miners in 2008.  carnage.  the gold price dropped but it wasn't catastrophic.  this time i think it will be worse b/c we're at the end of a 12 yr bull mkt.  this wil be THE BIG ONE.

inflationists and pm bulls will say that the Fed will just print and won't let markets go down.  i ask; why did they let us have 2 devastating stock crashes in the last 12 yr and a housing implosion?

some of these questions and the scenarios derived from the answerse indeed supercede any and all technical analyses.

while these are all well considered and interesting to read, the private investor (such as myself) should look far beyond what any trader (also: such as myself) would consider in making decisions.

if it all goes "to shit" then you're far better off with austrian harmonics and maples as well as some 5g gold bars than with some piece of paper you boght or sold for immediate profit.

there are in fact (at least) TWO DIFFERENT ways and motivations to invest in Gold and Silver. OP is in one camp. I am in the other.  Both investors have completely different motivations. Holding PMs physically is a completely different ballgame (considerung the premiums alone).


Disclosure: I own physical gold and silver. I am constantly replenishing and adding to my portfolio. I will continue to buy because I do not trust paper money and I do not trust paper receipts. I do also invest in stocks and bonds, but only short- and midterm.

and how long term PM bulls look at this ?

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57399610/sweden-moving-towards-cashless-economy/

what are exit strategies ?