this is the speed of adoption that miscreanity underestimated in our earlier debates in 2011. and he's a young man too.
i'm an old man. what's that say?:
The Geeks Fail to Understand That Which They Hath Created.
Remember this chart from the
middle of last year?
The projections are exponential curves at discrete levels determined by empirical data, and there are four that I've focused on. At the bottom is an approximately 4.40% weekly growth rate from the beginning of market price availability (sourced from Bitcoincharts.com MtGox data). Next up is ~5% weekly, followed by the post-2011 bubble at ~5% as well (not shown). I found the latter level intriguing because it was the first external use (Silk Road) with a significant impact on the system.
Finally, the
current weekly growth rate. That happens to have accelerated somewhat since I made the above chart, from just under 6% to about 6.7% per week.
At the end of December 2012, the above levels for the week of November 11th were:
- 4.40% $101.27
- 5.00% $266.74
- 5.00% $389.56 (post-2011 bubble)
- 5.95% $1224.52
As of this week, the current growth number puts the value at:
My estimates have been particularly conservative because there's a lot that could still impede growth (not stop it), and after watching gold for so many years I find it best to allow for extended listless periods. However, even pessimistically we should see $100k within three years.
It'll be interesting to see how the present regulatory coin validation fiasco flies with the dark wallet opposition potentially gaining major traction. In the end I have no doubt the Faustian gambit will crumble, but it'll be a vicious war. What will concern me is when western goverments promote Bitcoin...
