This is for crazyivan and everyone else who is perplexed at wtf is going on with the markets???. Maybe my view of things resonates with some of you.

This is how I view the markets:
It is incorrect to say that price follows news. I think it is more correct to actually say news follow price but that is also not the entire truth. Price has a tendency to actually "unlock" news. Good times (price trending up) produce good news, bad news get ignored. Bad times (price trending down) produce bad news, good news get ignored, shrugged off.

The market can be viewed as waves in an ocean. Not that market price action is like water but more like water is a good medium that visually shows the movement of energy as it passes through it. For example in this simple animation - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yPTa8qi5X8
The water does not really move, it is just energy that passes through it because if water moved it would carry the red ball with it. You can make that experiment yourself in the sea or ocean.

So price movements show a wave-like pattern to it. Look at any price chart, at any time frame. This means that as with water it is energy passing through that creates the waves not actual physical water moving (water movement in oceans is brought about by currents but leave that aside for now). The driving force of markets is human passion, it is the energy of human emotion and the ups and downs that come with it. The market is made up of 1000s of individuals who compose this super average being (or "Mr.Market" - B.Graham). The price chart is the emotional state of this creature in time. Every market has its own collective characteristics that make up this "being" - this gets influenced by the personalities of people who actively trade in that market. The gold market has a distinct "being" or characteristic, the oli market has one, the apple stock has one etc.

So since I simplified the market down to a single human (being) level, I can now try to draw parallels from my own life to spot patterns to understand this creature better. Know thyself and you will start to understand markets.

As a human I find that when I have negative periods in my life (and these do come in cycles) there is not that much that I can really do to "get better". Often the best things is to just ride it out. The strong tendency in those periods is to view the world in negative colours. Much easier to see bad things than good. So good things happening to me might only have a diminished impact on my mood. On the other hand, when I am happy, ectatic, I see only positive things. Even small good things might get me excited. Also I might even start to view bad things happening to me as not really that important, I shrug it off.

Both, the negative mind and the positive mind have the ignorance of not seeing the other side of the coin. This is also why the "balanced" mindset is the most profitable one for the trader since from a balanced (emotionally) point of view all the positive and negative aspects can be grasped and evaluated more truly.

To analyse the current situation in the cryptomarket:
There is currently a big Bitcoin wave. The capital in the crypto space is very limited, not enough to go around. When Bitcoin starts to rise it will suck up a lot of capital, since altcoin space is a very easy place to get it from. Bitcoin is ruthless in that matter. This makes altcoins shit the bed.
BUT this will also change. Soon Bitcoin will breath out that capital again and that will have a good chance to ignite a nice altcoin bubble rally. When that will be? I do not know. If I had to guess it will depend on whether bitcoin breaks the ~$775-780 area or not. What I do know is that right now there is a huge sale of altcoins going on that will probably produce nice profits sooner than later.

I actually agree with you on this last paragraph. The rest, well it gets more into philosophical then crypto domain. My main issue is GOOD PROJECTS ATTRACT MONEY. For the last couple of weeks and months, we see lots of good news and not a lot of new money into Factom. 2 possible conclusions: either Factom s not a good project and we re all just too pink and positive or there s some other externality which affects the price. I d go with the second option and this other externality is margin lending which keeps tons of cheap coins on Polo due to lack of a decent wallet. This should change soon and then we can test this theory of mine.

If people dont share your vision doesnt mean they are wrong, i remember your prediction it will go down blah blah blah. I bought and made like 30% all the way up to 400k ! Im happy you get it hope you shorted.

You mean you switched sides when you found out your Fud didnt work cause factom only heading one way.

I think these are interesting points. In some ways the Exodus wallet may actually provide more of a bump to the price than M2, as crazy as that may sound to people who have been following Factom closely. It'll help take FCT off Polo, thereby reducing shorting, and will also help the average investor "connect" to Factom/FCT in a way that they haven't really been able to before.

Well maybe not "more than" M2, but I agree with those people who think Exodus's significance can't be underestimated.


I'm not sure I agree with this. The price moves only due to speculators' activity. The issue is how well informed those speculators/investors are, how connected they feel to the project (I'm talking emotions, which ETH had in spades courtesy of the charisma of VB), and maybe also how the charts are reading (still heavy whale suppression, though this should ease with rising volume after the the release of M2 + Exodus).

Also, for the Trollbox, there are a lot of noobs of various stripes, but there are also some intelligent folks, actually. It's a big, messy, cacophonous grab-bag. Looking at ...

http://www.polonibox.com/?messageText=fct

seems to show an increasing number of people waiting for the price to trend upward before filling up on FCT. Someone posted today "if we break 320k FCT i will double my stash." I believe a lot of other people are in the same boat. Right now, each time the price rises, it gets cut back down again. So ... investors are disincentivized to buy atm. BUT more and more people are starting to look into FCT, and everyone knows M2+Exodus is (likely) weeks away. My guess: a lot of people are waiting for a several-day price rise, after which the interested-but-not-yet-(fully)-invested investors will begin to fomo. Tl;dr: There are a lot of people waiting to invest, I think, which is a sign of healthy, possibly abrupt, growth.

Which will get there how exactly? In case you rub the magic lamp?

Almost all alts re in decline now, look at Ether. Factom s been holding on for now.

ETH Really Everyone knows eth needs 20 more hf to be working normal and even then its still in doubt, eth is done we will see eth in 2017 @ 300k and fct blowing over eth`s ath

Common more crazy fud crazyivan i still didnt buy more because its not getting cheaper


EDIT: Im pretty sure crazyivan got a bag of eth bought @0.02 and hes just panicking right now (he wants to buy more fct)

i mean I sold over 0.005 and starting to buy now... what exactly didn't work ?

To test my memorie crazyivan sold all hes factoms cause he was seeing more in eth, i guess that wasnt such a good guess.
Anyway i agree on the fact he was super bullish and suddenly he is complete bearish.

Anyway we will see m2 might see a nice increase in entry credits and that means some nice burning happening . Im just holding.
If it goes lower i just buy more and lower my avarage ( btw my avarage is already way sub zero on factom ) Best coin 2016 for me.


If you did that i can only say good trade.

Buying exactly on the buttom is not possible every time, just to make a target is easier and then sitback and wait till it hits the target.
I think as soon m2 is started, and people like smartrac and the bill foundation start testing and using m2 thats when the biggest gain will happen.

And i dont know the time it will take to enter to m3, but every day it takes longer will cut the simply more and more. Eventually company's will also start collecting and holding factoids.

The entry credits are picking up again, good start