I think rather than maxing the share value at 1.5*D it would be easier for miners to understand if there was a semi-permanent maximum payment - for example a 1/2 block reward.

There may be some wisdom in the KISS method by putting a reasonable cap on max reward as opposed to taking a "1 in a quintillion" chance of something astronomically bad happening.

Have any of us said "the chance of X happening is so remote that we don't need to worry about it?"  I have, and far too many times I've had to follow up by saying "ain't never seen that before".
Sam

I rarely rely on my analysis of a probability of anything.  I used to rely on others analysis a little more often but have been taught by the School of Hard Knocks not to do that when the consequences are too high.

Graet will need to determine what his comfort level with the consequences are.

(1-a)*(wd*B/D)*(sd/wd)^a
is simpler than
[(1-a)/(1-a*wd^(1-a)*(1.5D)^(a-1))]*(wd*B/D)*(min(1.5D,sd)/wd)^a.

a^2/(1-2a) is simpler than -1+((-1 + a)^2 X (-wd^(2 a) X + 2 a wd X^(2 a)))/((-1 + 2 a) (-wd^a X + a wd X^a)^2). The expression for the variance is what you need to truly bound your risks.

You should distinguish
1. Hunches that something is unlikely, or derivation of probabilities based on strong assumptions of dubious truth value
from
2. Probability derivations for essentially pure random processes where there are virtually no relevant assumptions.

#1 are only as good as your process - in other words, usually not very good. #2 Really do mean something. Something that has a true probability of 1 in a billion to cause, say, my own death, is really nothing to worry about.

As per #2 - blak told me average share is just a rolling avg of.. last share * cur share 2 .. so just a period in time. I would like to see an all time average too.

For #1 - there still is the question of what does valid shares actually reflect? Ive been told its shares submitted then based down to their 1diff equivilant, but in testing this seems to not mathmatically be correct. Then there is the other side, is it just a total of actual shares submitted, regardless of their vardiff. But, Im being told by developers the first one is how its figured, but it seems to actually be working more like my 2nd point.. so...really confused.

sorry, last share diff + cur share diff 2

@all
Doing up some more user stats currently
My brain collapsed last night, had a sleep going to look at new formulae and feedback, appreciate the help, I feel we are moving in the right direction


Wave, thanks for giving it a go and the feedback, you posted just after i went to bed, the answer is
at work_difficulty diff 1 and D = 3370182 share_difficulty (1.5*D)= 5055273
( 1 * 24.25 3370182 ) * (( 1 - 0.8 )*( 5055273 1 )^0.8 )=0.331958715BTC

Thanks folks
Graet

Hmm, should I feel better now?

Just two more days to the end of the Aztec calendar you know .
Sam

Sort of. You get paid the same as if the shares you submitted were only half the difficulty the are(since vardiff = work_difficulty =2), but multiplied by 2.

Think of it like this:

Reward per share = function(share_difficulty/work_difficulty) *  work_difficulty