Elliot waves seem to me the same as looking at ink blots - you see what you need to see. If it wasn't just a matter of psychological projection a simple computer algorithm would be able to 'see' them.
Just like psychology, if enough of us
believed it to be true, then it
would be true. The small count (pink) is eye-ball symmetrical. Waves (I & II) and (c & a) have a fib relationship (based on my fat finger measurements). If bitcoin prices drop significantly below $1 (wave "d" and "e"/five count reversal), then bitcoins may soon be as valuable as my tears.
I can only make poor defense of Elliott waves, as I have little experience using them. But I think on monthly scales, bitcoin produces a compelling wave chart. With the long term support/trend unambiguously broken, there may not be a lot of TA alternatives. If I may quote
Wikipedia:
Wave 5: ... everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in ... some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest ...
Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond.
Wave 1: Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower; the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts.
I'll also add that EWP serves as common ground for discussing bitcoin trends with some of the women in my life. So they aren't entirely useless.
